Good Riddance New Jersey

I’ve said it before, and I‘ll say it again: Football can be a wily mistress. A week ago, the Browns dismantled the New York Giants in a very workmanlike manner with Baker setting a franchise record by completing 85% of his passes. We were all anticipating a return trip to Metlife Stadium a week later to take on a 1-13 Jets team in what should have been a tune-up before the big finale with the Steelers. However, the Jets had different ideas, and coming off of their “upset” of the LA Rams, they came to play against the depleted Browns and managed to barely hang on for their second win of the season. So instead of having clinched a playoff berth, the Browns find themselves in a situation where they have to beat Pittsburgh to get into the playoffs. (Look for a preview later this week about Browns-Steelers)

So, I’m not in the camp that is trying to write off this loss as exclusively due to all of the swirling cacophony that erupted less than 24 hours before kickoff. The Browns were missing their entire wide receiving corps, two offensive linemen, and two linebackers, all starters. Obviously it’s tough to plug in back-ups, or even elevated practice squad players and expect smooth execution. (They even had to have their offensive walk through in a parking garage) But I think it’s worth pointing out that the two long touchdowns for the Jets had nothing to do with missing players, it was blown coverages both times. Additionally, not one...not two...but three fumbles by Baker took the game away from us and again, I’m not sure you can point to the COVID situation as contributing to that. Baker said as much in his abbreviated post game presser, and he was clearly bothered by the result and his performance. He said the right things, and took responsibility for his mistakes, but at the end of the day your quarterback cannot put the ball on the turf three times and hope to win. Literally not one thing went as expected; inexplicably the Browns threw the ball 53 times, Kareem Hunt was a non-factor, Cody Parkey was terrible (again), the Browns had 4 rushing yards at halftime, and Austin Hooper seemed to forget how to catch a football. (He caught 4 of the first 5 targets, then only 3 of the next 11 passes that came his way.) 

I do think it is worth acknowledging that  the Browns were still in a position to beat the Jets despite playing terribly and missing all those players. The unfortunate thing is that the playoffs were on the line, and I’m a bit concerned that the spectre of the longest playoff drought in the league weighs heavily on the collective mind of this team. That’s the bigger concern than the loss, but I do think that Kevin Stefanski is exactly the guy that can get this team to shake off the malaise and be ready to go against Pittsburgh this week. We’ve already seen him manage this team when it has been under adversity. After the brutal loss to Baltimore on Monday Night, the old Browns would have wilted against the Giants, but instead this team went on the road, played smart, efficient football and held the Giants to 6 points. However, Kevin Stefanski is not on the field making split second decisions, Baker Mayfield is. So the question is really about his frame of mind on Sunday, and will having familiar players around him allow him to relax and play as well as he has in recent weeks. Just as important is the focus and play of the defense, especially the secondary. Yes, we’re playing against Mason Rudolph but at this point it looks like just about anybody can throw for 250 yards and 2-3 touchdowns against the Cleveland defense. It is essential that the defense gives Baker a little breathing room by getting some stops and not giving up big chunks of yardage in the game. We’ll know right away if Joe Woods has those guys ready to go on Sunday.

Go Browns.

 

Ravens-Browns was a poetic battle, next up the New York Football Giants

 There are no moral victories, let’s be clear about that. At the end of the regular season you have a column with the number of wins, and a column with the number of losses. End of story. That’s advantageous when you’d rather dismiss games like the 38-6 and 38-7 losses the Browns had earlier this season. But the fourth loss of this season is different. (Worth noting that the fourth loss of this season came in December) Three days later, and I am still trying to make sense of how the Browns were down 14 points twice in the second half, and still had the game tied with a minute left. I can’t quite wrap my head around how the Ravens had 12 completions and scored 45 points*, or how Lamar Jackson pulled a Joe Paterno in the middle of a game only to return and throw a 44 yard touchdown on fourth down that crushed the collective souls of Browns fans near and far. Also, it’s confusing why the Browns threw the ball 48 times when they have one of the best rushing offenses in the league. In the bizarre stat department, the Browns somehow fumbled 4 times, but recovered each fumble, and there were a total of 9 rushing touchdowns in the game. Suffice to say, it was a weird, weird night along the lakefront, and whether you want to attribute it to the misses by Cody Parkey, or the Baker interception, or shoddy defense, the Browns came up a hair short in probably the best game of the season in the NFL.

About the defense, it’s terrible. Like historically awful, certainly among the worst units the Browns have put out there. However, I’m not ready to fire Joe Woods quite yet, without Denzel Ward and Jerome Harrison the secondary was on thin ice against the Ravens. Coming into the season we expected that Grant Delpit would be an immediate contributor and it looked like Greedy Williams would be reliable as well, but obviously injuries have derailed both of those guys. But the problem isn’t only in the secondary, the Ravens ran for 231 yards in the game, averaging 7.4 yards a carry. It’s pretty hard to get stops when they can get chunks of yardage like that. In the offseason, the emphasis was clearly on bolstering the offense (Hooper, Conklin, Keenum, Wills) so we knew coming into the season that it was going to be frustrating on the defensive side of the ball. Despite allowing close to 30 points a game (more if you take out the games played in terrible weather) the defense has made some plays late in games to help seal a win. They were just unable to do that against a desperate Ravens team last week, and were literally one play away from moving to 10-3, when a Willis Reed type moment happened and the MVP led his team to a crucial win. A freelance contributor to 4338 put it like this: “Great Game. Played well. Defense stinks. That will not change until they get some more players.” That’s 100% true and for the remainder of the season, we’re going to need this offense to hold on to the ball and score 30 or more to give us a good chance of winning. 

Speaking of winning, I think the Browns must be feeling a little bit of pressure, maybe for the first time all season. The prognosticators at 538 have the Browns with an 89% chance of making the playoffs and I think they will, barring something crazy like losing the remaining three games on their schedule. I’m confident that at least they will beat the Jets, who aren't even trying to win in an effort to get the chance to draft Ronnie “Sunshine” Bass from Clemson University. Cleveland hosts the Steelers in the last week of the season, and my sense is that Pittsburgh will rest everybody they can, it’s been a grind for that team the past couple of weeks. But there are no gimmees for the Cleveland Browns, so a win tomorrow against the Giants could go a long way to put a lot of minds at ease in Cleveland. Despite the fact that the Giants are 5-8, missing their starting QB and best defensive player, I still don’t feel super confident about traveling to New York tomorrow. The Giants still have a slim chance at making the playoffs, and their defense has been good as of late, and we’ve seen that the Browns can give up a lot of points to anybody. (Although it favors the Browns that Colt McCoy is starting and Freddie Kitchens is calling plays. I can’t imagine that combination is going to put more than 20 points on the board) Still, the Browns ought to be able to score on this team, and the defense only needs to be average to have a big lead in the second half and then we can hand it off to Chubb and Hunt the rest of the way. 

It’s tough to pick a score in a game like this, especially when the Browns had such a tough loss last week. To get a truly objective perspective I had to go to an outside source, in this case the Prague-based U.K. correspondent for 4338, Mr. Oliver Hill. His analysis is succinct, and spot-on: “Looks like it’s do or die time for the Browns. The big people from the Big Apple have been on a great recent run. Time for the Cleveland folk to turn up and put in a top class display.” That confirms my opinion, and I think the Browns go to NYC, run all over the Giants, and come back with a much needed victory, something along the lines of 34-17. 

Go Browns.

*I refuse to acknowledge the last two points scored in the game on that nonsensical lateral garbage that resulted in a safety. Those plays are so dumb, the NFL ought to consider a rule that limits the number of laterals to three. Also, it’s one thing if it is special teams guys out there, but we had Baker and Chubb on the field. What a needless catastrophe it would be if they were injured as part of that nonsense. Not to mention the effect it had on the betting scene for the game. I had no action on the game, but if I had Cleveland +3, I would have lost my mind about that.

'Tis the season for NOT firing a head coach

 After a brief hiatus involving moving, crime, and too many Zooms to count, the staff of 4338 is finally back on the job and ready for a December playoff push in Cleveland. You read that right, I think Browns fans can be pretty confident about playing some football in mid-January. (The nerds at 438 have Cleveland with a 92% to make the playoffs) The atmosphere in Cleveland must be a strange amalgam of anticipation, jubilation, and disorientation as well. (Feel free to insert any other word that ends in -tion) It’s been so long since we were in the playoffs (2002), that I genuinely think fans might be at a loss for what to think/feel. It definitely feels like we are getting away with something, that we’ve somehow perpetrated a scam on the NFL in some way. It’s so unfamiliar to be in a position to finish with 11 or 12 wins that I find myself surprised when it occurs to me this team could actually win a playoff game. (All the while I am sheepishly recalling I picked this team to go 8-8) As Cleveland fans, our attention is naturally drawn to the 8, and not the 92 in the playoff equation. I heard more than a few callers on Cleveland sports radio laying out doomsday scenarios, and I understand curbing your enthusiasm a bit until it is official that we’re in the playoffs. But let’s recognize that this coaching staff has made a titanic shift in the culture of this organization. Everybody from Baker Mayfield to the grounds crew show up on Sunday mornings expecting to win, not just hoping to keep it close. In a truly bizarre 2020, Kevin Stefanski and his unflappable demeanor provided a stability that this organization hasn’t seen in decades. Those things don’t point towards a late-season swoon, they point towards roaring into a first round playoff game ready to score some points against anybody, anywhere.

Regardless, there are a few things to be mentioned from the past few weeks. The Browns beat a listless Texans team 10-7 in horrible weather in Cleveland, and there literally isn’t a single highlight worth mentioning. (In terms of watchability, this game was right up there with the thrilling 6-3 win over the Bills in 2009, widely regarded as one of the worst football games ever played.) It was difficult to watch the Texans game, and even more difficult to watch the highlight reel after; I found my attention drifting towards more interesting things like mold growing on an old cup of coffee, or a youtube video on bookbinding practices of Victorian England. Exactly one week later, against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sione Takitaki got the party started with a pick 6* and it turns out they needed all six of those points to eke out a 22-17 victory in yet again torrential rain and wind. My disdain for Philadelphia, their criminally insane fans, cheesesteaks, and even the Liberty Bell is well-documented, so I will not wax poetic about what a dump that city really is. This win moved us to 7-3, and even the most grizzled, jaded Browns fans started thinking about playoff possibilities. Week 12 saw the Browns traveling to Jacksonville Florida, a place where Applebee’s accounts for 85% of the cultural opportunities and it’s buy one get one free on scabies treatments at your local Walgreens. The Browns managed to barely beat a winless team 27-25 in a game that was dominated by Nick Chubb and Jarvis Landry playing as if they were in a hurry to get a win, and leave that state. The win was important for sure, but perhaps pales in comparison to managing to return from the state of Florida without any facial tattoos, COVID, or a crystal meth problem. 

That brings us to week 13, and the Browns took a road trip to Nashville to take on a legitimately good team, one that went to the AFC championship game the year prior. I realize that I do have a habit of disparaging other NFL cities, but that’s hard to do when it comes to Nashville. (The obvious exception is the fact that Nashville was the epicenter of the, thank god, short-lived fad of country line dancing.) But it is an amazing city; from the Pancake Pantry in the west end near Vanderbilt, to Jack’s BBQ on Broadway, not to mention the Willie Nelson Museum and Ryman Auditorium. In my brief stint in technical sales, I was in Nashville once a month or so, and liked it enough that I even considered moving there at one point. But I digress. The Browns came into the game as a significant underdog, both in the point spread and in the eyes of the national media. It is easy to point to the two blowouts against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and make the claim that the Browns have beaten up on bad teams (but also giving up 28 points a game) and lost decisively to the playoff teams. But the Browns came into the game with a blatant disregard for what anybody has to say, and immediately jumped all of the vaunted Tennessee defense. Before you could say “Let’s go to Parma for pierogies” the Browns were up 17-0 at the beginning of the second quarter, and really never looked back. At halftime the Browns led 38-7, and had broken several franchise records for first half offense. Unfortunately, football games often have two halves. And the second half was ugly. The Titans beat the brakes off of Cleveland outscoring them 28-3 the rest of the way. I’m not sure there’s a lot to be gained by analyzing the second half. The Titans could play with nothing to lose and they threw the ball all over the field and banged out 4 touchdowns in a half. Even though the Titans got dangerously close to pulling off a comeback, I never really felt like the outcome of the game was in jeopardy. Don’t get me wrong, I’d rather win by 17 than 6, but in this crazy year, a win is a win, and there are no bad wins. Most importantly, we’ve got 9 of them now.

Go Browns.

*Enjoy Jim Donovan’s call of the play, he’s an all-time great and up there on Mt. Rushmore with Tom Hamilton and Joe Tait. (I guess one other person too, maybe Ghoulardi? Legendary weatherman Dick Goddard?)