The clock is ticking

If I were a more talented blogger, I would insert some sort of gif showing a confused/surly Browns fan vacillating between anger (we're 1-2 after all), and irrational pride. (The defense shut down the NFC champs while missing 5 starters)  It's been too crazy of a week to do a deep dive on the loss to the Rams, so here is a brief recap by one of my favorite sports writers Terry Pluto.  I'm surprised he's not more critical of Kitchens; pre-snap penalties and questionable play calling falls squarely on the coaching staff, and this case it's Freddie who calls the plays.  It's tough to defend the draw play on fourth and 9 in the middle of the field, and then the debacle down on the goal line.  I'm hearing from some Browns fans that Freddie just needs a little more time, be patient, and so forth.  There's also legitimate criticism of the offensive line, and according to my notes there were no lineman drafted and no free agents were added to bolster that unit.  This season Mayfield has been sacked 11 times in three games, orders of magnitude more than last season.  In the entire second half of the season, Baker was sacked only 5 times in those 8 games.  Surely the personnel of the Browns observed that statistic as well and probably felt pretty good about the offensive line coming into this season.  I don't understand what's so different this year, but besides the actual sacks recorded, it's clear that Baker is running around pell-mell (willy-nilly?) and every other pass is off his back foot and out of desperation.  Also perplexing is that Chubb had a pretty good night against the Rams and despite establishing the run, the passing game was once again terrible.  All that being said, the game wasn't a total loss.  The defense held the Rams offense to two TD's and 2 field goals and that's quite an accomplishment, especially being down 5 starters.  However the Browns offense has scored 5 touchdowns in three games, and that's totally unacceptable considering the talent on that side of the ball.

So, the Cleveland Browns find themselves in a 100% must win situation this week.  Starting this campaign 1-3 would be an unmitigated disaster.  Let's be clear about something: the goal for the 2019 Browns is a playoff berth.  There's a very slim chance that eight wins can win the division, it has only happened ten times since the NFL went to a 16 game season in 1978.  Nine wins is no guarantee (neither is ten, we can all remember 2007, right?)  But the bigger question looms, would it even be possible for the Browns flip a switch and go 8-4 the rest of the way? (Spoiler alert...it's not)  I actually would fear a total implosion if they lose to the Ravens, and I don't think Freddie can right the ship in that circumstance.  The following week is a cross country trip to 3-0 San Francisco coming off a bye, then Seahawks in Cleveland, bye week, then at New England.  Yikes. 

So there are a few things working against the Browns this week.  The Ravens hold on to the ball for 38 minutes a game, they are leading the league in points per game, the Browns are only converting third down 28% of the time.  Clearly, those are not factors that point towards Cleveland coming back with a win.  However, it seems that Baltimore is susceptible to big plays, so I hope the Browns take some chances throwing the ball downfield.  The Ravens defense is not what it was last year, so we ought to be able to get Chubb going I think (and throw to him once in a while) OBJ will probably be double teamed much of the game, so Landry has to do better than 3 catches out of 9 targets like last week. (To be fair, Baker wasn't throwing the most catchable passes last week)  Most importantly, the offensive line has to be better. I imagine that was the central focus of practice this week.  Baker obviously needs to be better as well, this isn't the Big-12 conference where you can run around for 5 or 6 seconds and pick out a receiver 35 yards downfield.  Sometimes he reverts to the improvisational Baker Mayfield (which is okay at times), but we really need to run the plays that are best suited for our talent.  I hope Freddie is ready to coach the biggest game of his career.  A record of 2-2 is a million miles better than 1-3.  So the question is, can a team win just because they absolutely have to?  I would say yes, the Eagles went to Green Bay in a similar must-win scenario and came out with a victory (much to the delight of this tattooed gentleman) It takes focus, preparation and execution (lots of cliches there) and in a divisional game it's going to take a little luck as well.  

So despite the lackluster season so far, and very little confidence in our head coach, I am going to pick the Browns to win this game.  Last year Browns won 12-9, and lost 26-24, and historically the Browns-Ravens have always played tight games.  I think the Ravens will have a hard time containing OBJ and Landry, and Myles Garrett ought to be able to wreak havoc in the Baltimore backfield.  I think the Browns can score 3 touchdowns and a couple of field goals.  I think the Browns win a squeaker, 27-23

Go Browns.

Rams Browns Preview or; Was Marilyn Monroe a Browns Fan?

For the second week in a row, your Cleveland Browns will be featured in a primetime tilt.  This time on Sunday, from a place called FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, against superbowl losers, the Los Angeles Rams.  That sounds like I am taking a shot at LA, which I am, but it is warranted when you only score 3 points in the superbowl. Perhaps you had forgotten about superbowl 53, widely regarded as the most unwatchable event on TV since the series finale of Lost, the 2016 election returns, and most of Friends.  The halftime score was 3-0, and by then I imagine that a lot of fans had exited that obnoxious space ship stadium in Atlanta. Even going to that place where they put that gross chili on a hot dog while shouting at you would have been a better option.  That would have been more entertaining than watching the 27 yards of offense that the Rams put up by halftime.  But at least they got to watch Maroon 5 perform the halftime show.

Just like last week, I am faced with the difficult decision to wake up at 2:30 AM to watch the game live, or watch it on delay the next morning before work.  (I will certainly choose the latter) Eggs, coffee, and Browns football early in the morning remind me of watching football at the Kailua Pub on the windward side of Oahu.  I wore my Browns jersey faithfully for 8 years to the 7 AM kickoffs for breakfast and NFL.  I endured lots of ridicule, particularly from Eagles fans, and at times I got a lot of sympathy for any number of brutal last minute losses.  There was also the famous near fistfight when defending my wife from a drunken Raiders fan. All of these things happened amidst delicious scrambled eggs, bacon, and rice. What a treat to watch NFL until 10:00 AM, then head to the beach to ruminate on the latest Cleveland Browns fiasco.

In any case, the game tonight has some interesting stories to it.  Let's fire up the Wayback machine one more time, this time to December 16, 1945. The football team from Washington D.C. was in town to take on The Cleveland Rams in the 1945 NFL championship game.  It was bitter cold, -8 ˚F (-22 ˚C) and only 32,178 people braved the conditions and watched Rams QB Bob Waterfield outduel Slingin' Sammy Baugh in a barn burner, 15-14.  Bob Waterfield was married to Hollywood starlet Jane Russell, and Sammy Baugh was as big a star as there was at the time in sports making this championship game an event to remember. However, one month after winning a championship, team owner and grocery store magnate Dan Reeves announced the team would move to Los Angeles. So Art Modell isn't the original villain in Cleveland after all, and perhaps even less egregious than Reeves. That move did create the space for Paul Brown to bring in the Cleveland Browns, who promptly went to five straight championship games (1950-1955) winning three of them. No wonder there are so many hard core Browns fans in their 80's who grew up with those fantastic teams.

Fast forward to 2019. The Rams opened up by beating (the anaemic) Carolina Panthers 30-27 then beat the Saints 27-9, but Brees left the game in the first quarter with a hand injury. I am not sure there's a lot to be gleaned from those wins; week one was against 60% of Cam Newton's shoulder (who seemed more concerned with his press conference attire than the game) and week two was against a team that was totally lost without their leader. Todd Gurley has been good (30 carries for 160 yards) and they have three good receivers; Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods. They generally throw more than they rush so I think the Cleveland secondary could have their hands full. However, I think the biggest advantage is the defensive line, and the Browns should be harassing Jared Goff all night long. I'm concerned about the Browns offense in this game, the Rams defense is stout for sure, and I am not sure the Browns really know what they want to be offensively. Mayfield has been erratic at times, and teams seem able to disguise their coverages at the line of scrimmage, which forces Mayfield to change the play late in the play clock. I think I'd prefer if the Browns identify their bread & butter, and just keep grinding. I'm disappointed that Chubb doesn't seem to have been more impactful so far, but perhaps this week the offense and Chubb can start hitting their stride a bit more. Tonight is a big opportunity for Kitchens, if we get a win against the NFC champs coached by wonder-boy Sean McVay, that gets a lot of momentum started as we go into this stretch of games. If you read my season preview, I picked the Browns to go 8-8, which suggests that I cannot pick the Browns to win all 16 weeks. So sadly, when I try to capture a more objective perspective I have an unsettling feeling that points to the Rams coming out on top tonight. I hope I am wrong, maybe Cleveland comes out like wildfire at home tonight, but I think it is more likely that they struggle to put up points. So I see the Rams winning something like 24-20. You never know, a pick six or special teams TD from the Browns could make the difference in a tight game, as could the offense shaking off their early malaise. Enjoy all of this national attention heaped upon the Browns, it's been a long time since we were anything except the butt of jokes. I hope on Monday I am writing about how far off my week 3 prediction was.

Go Browns.

Browns vs. Jets wrap-up

Alas, the legend of Luke Falk was not meant to be born this past Monday night.  When Trevor Siemian left the game in the second quarter,  recent practice-squad QB Luke Falk trotted onto the field, gave the ball to Le'Veon Bell 7 straight times, and put up a quick 3 points on the scoreboard.  However, that would be it for the Jets on that evening.  It wasn't a total loss for Falk, he did complete 20 of 25 passes, which is way more efficient than Baker Mayfield was.  His 19 for 35 performance was definitely not a thing of beauty, but if it weren't for the 89 yard gash by OBJ, he would have been around 230 yards against a terrible defense.  Side note, this discussion of completion percentage reminds me of a magical Sunday in 1993.  It was the day after Christmas and Vinnie Testaverde went 21 for 23 against the L.A. Rams en route to a 42-14 victory. (NFL record percentage at the time) However, that victory paled in comparison to the events of November 8th, a date which will live in infamy in northern Ohio.  Bill Belichick (and Art Modell) made the decision to release beloved quarterback Bernie Kosar.  I'm not sure what happened to that Belichick guy down the line, but I do know that a year or two later Art Modell ripped the hearts out of a few hundred thousand people when he announced that the team would move to Baltimore.  

Back to the current day Cleveland Browns...  There really is no such thing as a bad road win, and it's pretty difficult to complain much about winning by 20 on Monday Night Football.  But, you know Cleveland fans, we could find some doom and gloom if we were up 21 points at halftime in the Superbowl.  I know it appears I teeter on the brink of being a cynical, negative fan about this team.  However, that's genuinely not the case, I believe there is tremendous offensive talent on this team, and I believe the defense has the potential to be a dominating unit.  But I also can recognize that there isn't all that much big-game experience on this team; not from the players or the coaching staff.  That manifests itself in some small ways like how often the play clock was down to 1 or 2 seconds, inevitably resulting in delay of game penalties.  And it shows up in more significant ways, for example when they were up 20, with two minutes to go in the game and Baker inexplicably drops back to pass and gets crushed.  That's coaching 101 when you have a big lead on the road, hand the ball off agin, and again, and again, and again.

I think there are a few other things worth noting from last Monday night.  Myles Garrett had 3 sacks and is leading the league in that department.  However, he got flagged twice for roughing the passer and both times it was on third down.  He's is an absolute monster, and he has been vocal about his pursuit of defensive player of the year award.  I like that, but at times he does flirt with that fine line between being an aggressive player and a dirty player.  I love that that Landry volunteered to return punts with Hilliard still out with a concussion.  The tone of the postgame interviews was measured, and the message I took away (particularly from Mayfield) was that the players believe there is still a lot more work to be done.  That's certainly true, the next 5 opponents are daunting to say the least.  Rams are in town today, back to back road games at Baltimore and San Fransisco, home against Seahawks, then at New England and the aforementioned Bill Belichick.  Each of those teams sit at 2-0, although I believe strongly that's a misleading statistic this early in the season.  The point is that the Browns have their work cut out for them if they want to be 5-2 or even 4-3 at the end of October.  All things considered the team cleaned some things up from the debacle against the Titans, but clearly there's a need for improvement in overall execution and focus.  I didn't listen to any Cleveland sports radio this week (that's a painful undertaking) but I wonder how the local fans feel.  I wish I could wander around the tailgate lots before the Rams game and get a feel for the mood of the fans.  (Proper safety gear would be strongly suggested, there is an extra 8-10 hours of tailgate time, that could be a recipe for disaster)  Any way you cut it, the Browns went to New York (technically New Jersey) and came back with the results they needed.  Maybe that's the most meaningful analysis of this game.

Go Browns.

The circus hits the road to NYC in week 2...

"The Browns enter primetime Monday night, in a pressure-filled matchup against the Jets". A sentence that in recorded history maybe has never been uttered aloud.  That is unless you fire up the Wayback machine and go all back to September 21, 1970.  (Side note: the Boris & Natasha skits from Rocky and Bullwinkle speak volumes about the Cold War.  Also, I thought Pottsylvania was a real place until about the 11th grade)  The early 70's were quite a time in America; Richard Nixon was president, stamps were 6 cents (people actually mailed things back then apparently), and you could buy a brand-new Ford Pinto for $1,830.  We had landed on the moon a year prior, we were still a couple years away from the Arab oil embargo, and the Carpenters, the Jackson Five, and Guess Who were blaring from 8-track players everywhere.  The NFL as we know it was still in it's infancy. 1970 was the first season after the AFL-NFL merger and the Browns and Jets were due to meet in the first ever broadcast of Monday Night Football.  Howard Cosell and Keith Jackson called the action from Cleveland Municipal Stadium as the Browns beat Broadway Joe Namath in a dramatic fashion 31-21.  Although there were actually 85,703 people were in the stadium, I am sure there are 300,000 people that claim to have been there.  (Probably the same 300,000 people that claim to have been at Len Barker's perfect game in 1981)

Anyway, fast forward 50 years.  As previously mentioned, the Browns arrive in New Jersey in desperate need of a win, after having been completely throttled in week one by the Tennessee Titans.  Allow me a brief dissection of that nonsense that happened last week.  We are all aware of the 18 penalties for 182 yards, the three interceptions from Baker (who apparently woke up feeling dangerous), as well as the performance of the porous offensive line.  But to me, the most egregious aspect of the game is that Titans led 12-6 at half time.  So what in the world happened at halftime that resulted in getting outscored 31-7 in the second half?  John Dorsey is the GM and by all accounts has done a fantastic job.  He's drafted well, brought in key free agents, and put some important pieces in place around Baker Mayfield.  And he got rid of Hue Jackson, who somehow was allowed to linger long enough to put up a record of 11-44-1 (Including the infamous 0-16 "perfect season") John Dorsey must have had some sleepless nights after losing to Baltimore in week 16, but shortly thereafter announced that Freddie Kitchens would be the head coach in 2019.  I was surprised by the decision at the time, Gregg Williams went 5-3 as the head coach during the second half of the season.  However, he has long been a shady dude in the NFL.  He was initially suspended indefinitely resulting from Bountygate in New Orleans, and recently a few different Browns players expressed relief that he was no longer with the organization.  So perhaps it was too much shade around Gregg Williams that led to his demise.  Regardless, Kitchens is heading the ship this season, and it's safe to say that last week might have been the worst possible way to start.  To be fair, the first four minutes and 49 seconds were amazing.  Baker hit 3 different receivers, Chubb had a nice run, and the Browns roared down the field to a 6-0 lead in less time than it takes Sokolowski's University Inn to prepare a plate of pierogies.  However, the remaining 55 minutes and 11 seconds were an unmitigated disaster, and a lot of that lay at Freddie Kitchen's feet.  The Browns were completely undisciplined, they committed the most penalties as a team since 1951 (that's really saying something considering the last 20 years of Browns football) not to mention Baker Mayfield trying to force feed the ball to OBJ every other play.  These are professional football players, so at the end of the day they are responsible for their actions. But I think most people in and around the NFL would agree that it reflects on the head coach when there are mental mistakes, a lack of focus, and the team is easily frustrated and reacts poorly to adversity.  As I mentioned before, I cannot fathom what went down at halftime in that locker room.  Freddie has been around football most of his life, so I am sure he said all the right things, but clearly that fell on deaf ears because the second half was, pardon the expression, a shit sandwich.  The loss and even the score are not really as worrisome the behavior, the ejection, the penalties, and our star QB completely falling apart in the fourth quarter.  Those things are symptomatic of a lack of leadership both on the field and at the top of the food chain as well. (shout out to ongoing grade 9 ecology studies)

Perhaps I am falling victim to "overreaction Monday", even though I am technically 6 days late on that.  But I am deeply concerned about this team right now, and not only do they have to have a win tomorrow, it has to be in a convincing manner and this team has to look sharp and composed doing so.  It's worth noting that the aforementioned Gregg Williams is the defensive coordinator for the Jets, and surely he'll try to bait the Browns into losing their cool at times.  Obviously, he also knows the Browns well on both sides of the ball, so an ugly low-scoring game could loom in the future.  However, I am going to put aside my jaded cynicism for just a moment.  What could very likely happen is that Nick Chubb gets a ton of work, has a great day rushing and the Browns hold on to the ball for long stretches of the game.  It's hard to see the Jets offense doing a whole lot, even with that petulant child, Le'veon Bell, who actually is listed as questionable as of Sunday morning.  The Jets were bottom 5 in just about all offensive categories last year, and it's difficult to see Trevor Siemian turning into Joe Namath all of the sudden.  More likely he's a mash-up of Geno Smith and Greg McElroy.  Hard to believe that a Browns team could be a 6.5 point favorite after last week, but I'll dust off my rose-colored glasses and picks the Browns to win 26-16.

Go Browns.

Believe the hype?

Look, there a million places to find all sorts of statistical information about the upcoming NFL season.  You can read what the nerds at 538 have to say about the Browns. Or you can enjoy the dulcet tones of Bill Barnwell on his podcast. (pairs well with those sleep tracker things that are all the rage) But this blog isn't about those things.  4338 is about the non-traditional, non-statistical perspectives on football, particularly the Browns.  (It occurs to me now that a numerical shorthand designation of my blog is sort of appropriating what they do at 538. I hardly think Nate Silver will cry foul) . What I'll bring (at least) each week is a somewhat level-headed post about the Cleveland Browns, sometimes pregame posts, postgame analysis, or perhaps an interesting aside related to Cleveland.   For example, I recently bought this record, partly because it's orange vinyl but mostly because The Nerves were a cool band.  However, I digress.

So my 10 days or so in Northern Ohio this summer made it clear that people are losing their minds about the latest iteration of the Cleveland Browns.  I get it... Winning seven games when you're fresh off a streak of 1-31* is like winning the powerball lottery while simultaneously discovering a cure for cancer and also managing to get one of the all-you-can-eat-for-a-year cards for Olive Garden.  So it's understandable that people in Cleveland are making plans to get to Miami for the Superbowl. Listening to sports radio in Cleveland** you would think this team somehow has reincarnations of Jim Brown, Otto Graham, and Ozzie Newsome. In Cleveland you can't go more than a couple of minutes without seeing Mayfield or Chubb jerseys. I'm stoked that this team has gotten the city of Cleveland so excited, and I can't imagine the atmosphere in the parking lots around Cleveland right now. It's probably a combination of cheap beer, grilled sausages, the magic of newly found best friends over a cornhole game, and as the day progresses the inevitable fistfights and break-ups. (I have first hand witnessed all of these things and more. As crazy as it is in Cleveland, at least were aren't like those idiots in Buffalo. It won't take you a lot of googling to find the sociopathic behavior that is commonplace before a Bills game.) So despite getting swept up in a little in the mayhem, I feel compelled to offer a little perspective on last season.

Thursday September 20, 2018 is a day that may someday be commemorated and celebrated across northern Ohio for decades to come. (Hopefully not in the same way as 10-cent beer night in 1974) . That's the day that Baker Mayfield came into the game against the Jets, down 14-0, her came in and led the Brown to a 21-17 victory. The first victory in Cleveland in almost 2 years, so of course fans responded with elation. (Perhaps the Bud Light promotion with the locked coolers of beer all over the Cleveland helped.) Anyway, a new era had begun. Two weeks later, the Browns again won a home game, beating Baltimore 12-9. Baker was incredible going 25/43 for 342 yards and a TD. In a mere 2 weeks, Baker's name was being bandied about with the likes of Bernie Kosar.

You can find plenty of articles online rehashing the "magic" of last season. I understand that after going 1-15 and 0-16, all of the sudden 7-9 is pretty awesome (and it is, in a way) . However, lets try to look at last season objectively. A lot of NFL coaches talk about looking at a season in terms of fourths. So the Browns were 1-3, 1-3, 2-2, and 3-1. Not great, right? Their seven wins were against teams that were a combined 40-56, so let's slow our roll a bit when considering this team. (Don't worry, this blog post will become more optimistic) . But I do think it is worth noting that there was only one win against a team with a winning record (Ravens) and that against playoff teams the Browns were pretty woeful. (1-5 against Chiefs, Texans, Chargers, Ravens, Saints) . So while it's great to celebrate the most successful season in a decade, let's also keep in mind that we didn't really have a great win, and that when we lined up against elite teams, we pretty much got throttled.

However, last season is old news in a lot of ways. Clearly the biggest addition this year is Odell Beckham Jr, a freakish athlete with sticky hands. Also the defense was bolstered a bit with Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson, and Morgan Burnett joining an already stout unit. So the thinking is that the offense got a lot more talented (despite the loss of Duke Johnson) and that the defense should be better as well. All of these things combined with a more experienced QB should point to continued improvement. However, don't forget that Freddie Kitchens is a first time head coach, the rest of the staff shuffled a bit, so there is definitely a hiccup in the continuity from last year. I think there's a fair amount of pressure on Nick Chubb this season, he's the focal point of the run game, and there's not a lot behind him in terms of experience. All things considered, my opinion is that the roster improved in the off season, and ought to play better, assuming everybody is healthy.

So, we are about 2 hours away from kickoff against the vaunted Tennessee Titans (a rare NFL team that doesn't really have even one worthwhile player to draft if you play fantasy football) A quick prediction on this game is that it's ugly, like that baby in the famous Seinfeld episode. I think the Browns eke out a win, something like 20-10. In the bigger picture, I would love to pick the Browns to go 11-5, that's supposing they go 4-2 in the division, something they're capable of doing) . But I also can anticipate a couple of bad losses along the way where there's a bad turnover late in the game, or poor clock management by a new coach. I truly hope I am wrong, but 8-8 seems like a pretty likely outcome to me (perhaps that's the jaded, cynical side of me that has been beaten down for decades supporting Cleveland sports). If they can pull off a win against the Rams in Cleveland week 3 (primetime game) they do have a good shot at being 5-0 going into a home game against Seattle with a bye week in game 7. If that's the case, the city of Cleveland might explode in a frenzy, and my 8-8 prediction could fall by the wayside in an avalanche of brown and orange t-shirts, hats, paint jobs on houses, and tattoos.

Go Browns.