The clock is ticking

If I were a more talented blogger, I would insert some sort of gif showing a confused/surly Browns fan vacillating between anger (we're 1-2 after all), and irrational pride. (The defense shut down the NFC champs while missing 5 starters)  It's been too crazy of a week to do a deep dive on the loss to the Rams, so here is a brief recap by one of my favorite sports writers Terry Pluto.  I'm surprised he's not more critical of Kitchens; pre-snap penalties and questionable play calling falls squarely on the coaching staff, and this case it's Freddie who calls the plays.  It's tough to defend the draw play on fourth and 9 in the middle of the field, and then the debacle down on the goal line.  I'm hearing from some Browns fans that Freddie just needs a little more time, be patient, and so forth.  There's also legitimate criticism of the offensive line, and according to my notes there were no lineman drafted and no free agents were added to bolster that unit.  This season Mayfield has been sacked 11 times in three games, orders of magnitude more than last season.  In the entire second half of the season, Baker was sacked only 5 times in those 8 games.  Surely the personnel of the Browns observed that statistic as well and probably felt pretty good about the offensive line coming into this season.  I don't understand what's so different this year, but besides the actual sacks recorded, it's clear that Baker is running around pell-mell (willy-nilly?) and every other pass is off his back foot and out of desperation.  Also perplexing is that Chubb had a pretty good night against the Rams and despite establishing the run, the passing game was once again terrible.  All that being said, the game wasn't a total loss.  The defense held the Rams offense to two TD's and 2 field goals and that's quite an accomplishment, especially being down 5 starters.  However the Browns offense has scored 5 touchdowns in three games, and that's totally unacceptable considering the talent on that side of the ball.

So, the Cleveland Browns find themselves in a 100% must win situation this week.  Starting this campaign 1-3 would be an unmitigated disaster.  Let's be clear about something: the goal for the 2019 Browns is a playoff berth.  There's a very slim chance that eight wins can win the division, it has only happened ten times since the NFL went to a 16 game season in 1978.  Nine wins is no guarantee (neither is ten, we can all remember 2007, right?)  But the bigger question looms, would it even be possible for the Browns flip a switch and go 8-4 the rest of the way? (Spoiler alert...it's not)  I actually would fear a total implosion if they lose to the Ravens, and I don't think Freddie can right the ship in that circumstance.  The following week is a cross country trip to 3-0 San Francisco coming off a bye, then Seahawks in Cleveland, bye week, then at New England.  Yikes. 

So there are a few things working against the Browns this week.  The Ravens hold on to the ball for 38 minutes a game, they are leading the league in points per game, the Browns are only converting third down 28% of the time.  Clearly, those are not factors that point towards Cleveland coming back with a win.  However, it seems that Baltimore is susceptible to big plays, so I hope the Browns take some chances throwing the ball downfield.  The Ravens defense is not what it was last year, so we ought to be able to get Chubb going I think (and throw to him once in a while) OBJ will probably be double teamed much of the game, so Landry has to do better than 3 catches out of 9 targets like last week. (To be fair, Baker wasn't throwing the most catchable passes last week)  Most importantly, the offensive line has to be better. I imagine that was the central focus of practice this week.  Baker obviously needs to be better as well, this isn't the Big-12 conference where you can run around for 5 or 6 seconds and pick out a receiver 35 yards downfield.  Sometimes he reverts to the improvisational Baker Mayfield (which is okay at times), but we really need to run the plays that are best suited for our talent.  I hope Freddie is ready to coach the biggest game of his career.  A record of 2-2 is a million miles better than 1-3.  So the question is, can a team win just because they absolutely have to?  I would say yes, the Eagles went to Green Bay in a similar must-win scenario and came out with a victory (much to the delight of this tattooed gentleman) It takes focus, preparation and execution (lots of cliches there) and in a divisional game it's going to take a little luck as well.  

So despite the lackluster season so far, and very little confidence in our head coach, I am going to pick the Browns to win this game.  Last year Browns won 12-9, and lost 26-24, and historically the Browns-Ravens have always played tight games.  I think the Ravens will have a hard time containing OBJ and Landry, and Myles Garrett ought to be able to wreak havoc in the Baltimore backfield.  I think the Browns can score 3 touchdowns and a couple of field goals.  I think the Browns win a squeaker, 27-23

Go Browns.