Believe the hype?

Look, there a million places to find all sorts of statistical information about the upcoming NFL season.  You can read what the nerds at 538 have to say about the Browns. Or you can enjoy the dulcet tones of Bill Barnwell on his podcast. (pairs well with those sleep tracker things that are all the rage) But this blog isn't about those things.  4338 is about the non-traditional, non-statistical perspectives on football, particularly the Browns.  (It occurs to me now that a numerical shorthand designation of my blog is sort of appropriating what they do at 538. I hardly think Nate Silver will cry foul) . What I'll bring (at least) each week is a somewhat level-headed post about the Cleveland Browns, sometimes pregame posts, postgame analysis, or perhaps an interesting aside related to Cleveland.   For example, I recently bought this record, partly because it's orange vinyl but mostly because The Nerves were a cool band.  However, I digress.

So my 10 days or so in Northern Ohio this summer made it clear that people are losing their minds about the latest iteration of the Cleveland Browns.  I get it... Winning seven games when you're fresh off a streak of 1-31* is like winning the powerball lottery while simultaneously discovering a cure for cancer and also managing to get one of the all-you-can-eat-for-a-year cards for Olive Garden.  So it's understandable that people in Cleveland are making plans to get to Miami for the Superbowl. Listening to sports radio in Cleveland** you would think this team somehow has reincarnations of Jim Brown, Otto Graham, and Ozzie Newsome. In Cleveland you can't go more than a couple of minutes without seeing Mayfield or Chubb jerseys. I'm stoked that this team has gotten the city of Cleveland so excited, and I can't imagine the atmosphere in the parking lots around Cleveland right now. It's probably a combination of cheap beer, grilled sausages, the magic of newly found best friends over a cornhole game, and as the day progresses the inevitable fistfights and break-ups. (I have first hand witnessed all of these things and more. As crazy as it is in Cleveland, at least were aren't like those idiots in Buffalo. It won't take you a lot of googling to find the sociopathic behavior that is commonplace before a Bills game.) So despite getting swept up in a little in the mayhem, I feel compelled to offer a little perspective on last season.

Thursday September 20, 2018 is a day that may someday be commemorated and celebrated across northern Ohio for decades to come. (Hopefully not in the same way as 10-cent beer night in 1974) . That's the day that Baker Mayfield came into the game against the Jets, down 14-0, her came in and led the Brown to a 21-17 victory. The first victory in Cleveland in almost 2 years, so of course fans responded with elation. (Perhaps the Bud Light promotion with the locked coolers of beer all over the Cleveland helped.) Anyway, a new era had begun. Two weeks later, the Browns again won a home game, beating Baltimore 12-9. Baker was incredible going 25/43 for 342 yards and a TD. In a mere 2 weeks, Baker's name was being bandied about with the likes of Bernie Kosar.

You can find plenty of articles online rehashing the "magic" of last season. I understand that after going 1-15 and 0-16, all of the sudden 7-9 is pretty awesome (and it is, in a way) . However, lets try to look at last season objectively. A lot of NFL coaches talk about looking at a season in terms of fourths. So the Browns were 1-3, 1-3, 2-2, and 3-1. Not great, right? Their seven wins were against teams that were a combined 40-56, so let's slow our roll a bit when considering this team. (Don't worry, this blog post will become more optimistic) . But I do think it is worth noting that there was only one win against a team with a winning record (Ravens) and that against playoff teams the Browns were pretty woeful. (1-5 against Chiefs, Texans, Chargers, Ravens, Saints) . So while it's great to celebrate the most successful season in a decade, let's also keep in mind that we didn't really have a great win, and that when we lined up against elite teams, we pretty much got throttled.

However, last season is old news in a lot of ways. Clearly the biggest addition this year is Odell Beckham Jr, a freakish athlete with sticky hands. Also the defense was bolstered a bit with Olivier Vernon, Sheldon Richardson, and Morgan Burnett joining an already stout unit. So the thinking is that the offense got a lot more talented (despite the loss of Duke Johnson) and that the defense should be better as well. All of these things combined with a more experienced QB should point to continued improvement. However, don't forget that Freddie Kitchens is a first time head coach, the rest of the staff shuffled a bit, so there is definitely a hiccup in the continuity from last year. I think there's a fair amount of pressure on Nick Chubb this season, he's the focal point of the run game, and there's not a lot behind him in terms of experience. All things considered, my opinion is that the roster improved in the off season, and ought to play better, assuming everybody is healthy.

So, we are about 2 hours away from kickoff against the vaunted Tennessee Titans (a rare NFL team that doesn't really have even one worthwhile player to draft if you play fantasy football) A quick prediction on this game is that it's ugly, like that baby in the famous Seinfeld episode. I think the Browns eke out a win, something like 20-10. In the bigger picture, I would love to pick the Browns to go 11-5, that's supposing they go 4-2 in the division, something they're capable of doing) . But I also can anticipate a couple of bad losses along the way where there's a bad turnover late in the game, or poor clock management by a new coach. I truly hope I am wrong, but 8-8 seems like a pretty likely outcome to me (perhaps that's the jaded, cynical side of me that has been beaten down for decades supporting Cleveland sports). If they can pull off a win against the Rams in Cleveland week 3 (primetime game) they do have a good shot at being 5-0 going into a home game against Seattle with a bye week in game 7. If that's the case, the city of Cleveland might explode in a frenzy, and my 8-8 prediction could fall by the wayside in an avalanche of brown and orange t-shirts, hats, paint jobs on houses, and tattoos.

Go Browns.