Baker is Nearly Perfect and the Front Office Faces a Dilemma

Not since the great balloon release of 1986 has this kind of unbridled enthusiasm swept through Cleveland. It’s the kind of excitement that surrounds a half-price sale at Higbee’s, finding a Cleveland Force t-shirt at a thrift shop in Tremont, or spotting Iron Chef Michael Symon grinding some pierogies at Sokolowski’s University Inn. In the week prior, a malaise had fallen across the region, and despite a 4-2 start, Browns fans were reeling from yet another lopsided defeat at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’ve written before about the emotional roller coaster that is unique to Browns fans, and I am definitely not immune. I stewed about the Pittsburgh loss all week, as predictable as it was, but managed to bolster my spirits and get ready for the Bengal game sure we’d score a bunch of points. Cleveland sports radio was full of every opinion imaginable about our young gunslinger Baker Mayfield, and all of the sudden an early season game with the Bengals felt like a must-win and would serve as a referendum on our quarterback. In a very Cleveland-style series of events, it looked like the Bengals would strike first, but BJ Goodson intercepted Burrow in the endzone and the Browns took over. (BJ Goodson, if you’re reading this, take a knee next time for a touchback) Two plays later Baker threw an interception, and on the same play we lost OBJ for the season to a knee injury. However, the remaining 54 minutes of the game will be written in the annals of Browns history because after a little scuffling, Baker completed his last 22 pass attempts of the game, including the winning touchdown with 11 seconds left in the game. It was as remarkable a performance as we’ve seen in a long time, especially with no Nick Chubb or OBJ, and deserves a spot on my list of most memorable sports memories.

So not surprisingly, Monday morning in Cleveland was all about the playoffs, as if they are a forgone conclusion. Personally, I am trying to temper my enthusiasm and keep a bit of perspective, because to be fair, the Browns haven’t really beaten a good team yet, not to mention I’ve seen this team wilt down the stretch after a decent start. (In 2014 we went from 6-3 to 7-9 in a long, painful swirl down the toilet bowl) I’m not fixated on the to soft schedule like some fans, because yes it’s true that we’ve got wins against bad teams, but it wasn’t that long ago that we lost to those same teams. And I believe that the first step in beating good teams, is to beat the bad teams in front of you. And the Browns have done that, by hook or by crook, in spite of the fact that this porous Cleveland defense allows 31.6 points per game. It’s not been without drama and you can probably say that a couple of those wins could have easily gone the other way. But regardless of how we got here, it feels pretty good to be sitting at 5-2 with some winnable games in the near future.

However, there is the loss of Odell Beckham Jr. to consider. I’ve never been the biggest supporter of OBJ, I felt that along with his crazy athleticism comes a suitcase full of drama and prima donna behavior. While that’s true, his impact on the field cannot be underestimated. It’s not so much about his stats (23 catches, 4 total touchdowns) but more about what his mere presence forces other teams to do defensively. He’s so quick, and is a threat to score everytime he touches the ball so teams need to constantly account for where he is on the field, and that contributes to how the other receivers for Cleveland get open so often. Don’t be fooled by the success of the offense against Cincinnati, that secondary couldn’t stop Firestone High School from scoring 24 points. Much has been made of the “chemistry” that Mayfield and Higgins seems to have, but Higgins to me is sort of a journeyman kind of player. Don’t get me wrong, he was fantastic last week, especially in the fourth quarter when it matters the most. But it’s hard to see that kind of performance happening week in and week out, so clearly the offense will have to be retooled a bit.

Not surprisingly, there has been a ton of discussion this week about what the Browns should or shouldn’t do as the trade deadline approaches. I understand the temptation to go after another wide receiver to replace OBJ, but I don’t think that this front office views that as a viable option. I think they are willing to roll with Landry, Higgins, and two other dudes with strange names at the wide receiver position. Plus Hooper, Bryant, and Njoku are all good options as well, so I can’t see a scenario where they make a move to bolster the offense. So the next question is should they make a move to shore up the defense. They are paper thin at safety and cornerback, partly because of bad luck with injuries to rookie Grant Delpit as well as Greedy Williams. This week the team hasn’t really said if they plan to be active in the trade market, which leads me to believe they will not. To me, this is incredibly disappointing. The defense is terrible, and puts the team in a position where they have to score 35 points to have a chance at winning. There’s no real reason to think it will dramatically improve during the rest of the regular season, although maybe defensive coordinator Joe Woods can work some magic during the bye week. (spoiler alert: there’s no way that happens) The Browns covet draft picks, and cling to them like grim death and have historically been reluctant to make big trades during the season. But in this year, with all the weirdness swirling around this team and this league, why not roll the dice and try to bring somebody in who can be a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball? I’m not making the claim that the Browns can even make a run in the playoffs, but I do believe they have the offense to win a playoff game. They haven’t done that since 1994, and it would be worth sacrificing some future picks to get an impact player right now.

Go Browns.

An Allegheny County shellacking, and a trip to Porkopolis.

 There are some things in this world that we can absolutely, 100% rely upon happening. Tomorrow, the sun will rise in the east, I-77 will still be under construction, and the Cleveland Browns will continue to lose at Heinz field where they are 1-20 since it opened. I think as an amateur sports journalist, I am entitled to one mulligan a year where I can fully lean into my hometown bias, ignore conventional wisdom, and make an outlandish prediction. Last year I picked the Browns to go to San Francisco and win 31-20, and all we did was go out there and lose 31-3 in a game that could have been 65-0. Like that prediction, this year I once again fell victim to the “Well who have they played?” analysis. But really, with such a huge advantage at QB and head coach, in retrospect, it was crazy to think that the Browns could catch the Steelers unprepared. It doesn’t even make sense to analyze the game all that much. Baker picked up right where he left off in the second half of the Colts game, and had ten completions and two interceptions. (That makes it 11 times in his career that Baker has a multi-interception game, and without googling, I am willing to bet that he leads the league in total picks since coming into the NFL in 2018) His very first pass attempt was returned for a touchdown, and just like that were down 10-0 six minutes into the game. That’s an all too familiar feeling, the Browns facing an insurmountable hill early in the game at Heinz field, and true to form we fell to pieces for the remainder of the game. We couldn’t run the ball, the passing game was anemic, and we couldn’t stop Pittsburgh’s ground game. In short, nothing was working and it looked like an extension to the second half of the Colts game. Sometimes it’s just not your day, and that was clearly the case last week.

Regardless, we do find ourselves at 4-2 so we can take some solace in that. However, Cleveland fans in general struggle with being happy human beings. There’s always something to pick apart, some negative mixed in among the good (like the one rotten pistachio mixed in with otherwise delicious nuts) The current maelstrom enveloping northern Ohio involves Baker, and his general mediocrity. (If he were a rock band, he would be Rush, a few good songs here and there, but not really an extended period of greatness. Or maybe he would be like Richard Russo who blew me away with Empire Falls, only to fizzle subsequently.) The concern about Baker is fair, because considering his career as a whole (36 starts) his numbers are best characterized as  “meh” (as the kids say). And soon enough the Browns have to make a decision about extending him to the tune of 30 million a year. So far, he is absolutely not the type of quarterback that we want to commit that much money to. Mary Kay Cabot wrote a great piece this week about exactly this issue, and the decisions the Browns face.* Baker is well aware that the current coach and GM are not the guys that made the decision to draft him, so he can’t really rely on loyalty in that manner. Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry are able to evaluate Baker more objectively and undoubtedly they’ve seen the same things we have. It does sound like they’re committed to giving Baker the remaining 10 games to prove himself worthy of that contract, but perhaps that is more of a function of elder statesman Case Keenum being the backup. We know everything there is to know about Keenum, although it is worth noting that he and Stefanski have history and a good rapport going back to their days in Minnesota. For Baker, it might be as simple as guiding this team to the playoffs to insure the extension from the Browns. It would be tough to cut ties with the QB that led a team to the playoffs for the first time since 2002

So strangely enough, the Browns and Baker Mayfield are going to be feeling a lot of pressure in Cincinnati tonight. The Bengals are not a great defensive team by any metric, and just a few weeks ago, the Browns put up 35 points while averaging six yards a carry. It’s funny that sometimes playing a bad team creates more pressure, but that’s clearly the case in the first half tonight. If the Browns scuffle on offense, and Baker throws another pick, I think that team could absolutely implode. We saw the temper tantrum last week from OBJ and I’m sure there’s already an undercurrent from the veterans on that team that maybe Baker isn’t the guy. This team is built to win now, and we can’t afford to keep trying to develop a quarterback and take the lumps that go with that. Terry Pluto wrote about exactly this thing, and I think (as usual) he’s right on the money. One thing for sure, if we win the coin toss, we sure as hell as better take the ball to start the game and get out to a lead right away. Like I said, the expectation when you play the Bengals is to score points, and I think Cleveland had better get out to a fast start immediately, and avoid a scenario where we are trailing on the road. 

Obviously no Chubb tonight is a huge loss, but Kareem Hunt will have plenty of opportunities for big plays and I predict a monster game from my guy Harrison Bryant. We might even see former Orlando Apollo superstar D’Ernest Johnson get a lot of work for the Browns tonight, he hasn’t gotten a lot of run since the Dallas game, but I feel like he’s a guy that stays ready, and will seize the opportunities he gets.  The Bengals are without amateur boxer Joe Mixon, but they do have AJ Green back who missed the first matchup against the Browns. Joe Burrow threw the ball 61 times against the Browns for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns, and that’s a bit of a concern because the Browns are precarious in the secondary for sure. I don’t think we’ll see the shootout we saw in week 2, but I do think the Browns will be sharp on offense. They’ve had to stew about the Pittsburgh game for a week, and want nothing more than to score immediately and silence the critics. For the Bengals, I think it’s going to be tough sledding against the Cleveland defensive line, and they'll have a hard time moving the ball effectively. I like the Browns to win this pretty convincingly, something along the lines of 34-20.

Go Browns.

*Mary Kay Cabot also tweeted out some of the replies from misogynistic, cretinous twitter trolls. These “people” seem to think it is outlandish for a woman to write about football, as if it is a sanctimonious man-space with no room for women. Mary Kay has played the same number of NFL games as these morons, so the claim that “she doesn’t know the game” is baseless and juvenile. The world we live in allows people to hide behind internet anonymity and say the most offensive things with no repercussions whatsoever, and allows these insecure, despicable people to crawl out from under their rocks from time to time.

A Tale of Two Halves, and a Trip to the 'Burgh

As anticipated, the Cleveland Browns took care of business last week against the Colts, but it certainly wasn’t pretty at times. On a day when a lot of things weren’t working, the Browns managed to grind through it and come out with a win. The running game never really got going, and Baker must have had a five course Thanksgiving meal at halftime, because he was terrible in the second half of the game. He had 19 completions for 228 yards in the first half, and only 2 completions in the second half for a total of 33 yards, along with two interceptions. (Here is a great piece from Ellis Williams about the stark difference before and after halftime) Last week I espoused the value in looking at the bright side of the road, but despite moving to 4-1, my takeaway from the Colts game is how bad the second half was. The Browns offense put up a whopping 3 points and 106 yards of offense, and the team looked flat and disorganized. They had to sit and stew about that all week, and I think that the whole team is eager to get back on the field and rinse that bad taste out of their mouths. I still wonder if the best we can hope for with Baker is for him to just not be terrible, and not to lose games for us. His ceiling seems to be dropping, maybe that’s play calling to an extent, but I wonder about his decision-making at times as well. I admire the gunslinger mentality, but sometimes taking that 5 yard checkdown is a better option than double coverage 40 yards downfield. Nevertheless, he has guided this Browns team to their best start in decades, and by far that is the stat that matters the most. 

In about six hours, the Browns will take the field in Pittsburgh, in what might be the most entertaining game of the week. Obviously everybody recalls Myles Garrett’s maniacal rampage last year, but what they might not remember is that it happened with eight seconds left in the game and Cleveland up by 14 points. It was truly one of the most bizarre sequences in Cleveland Sports history, and that includes people like JR Smith, Manny Ramierez, and Delonte West. Two weeks later, the Browns went to Pittsburgh and never really ever came out of the locker room, they lost 20-13 in a game that was never even that close. The franchise was reeling from Garrett’s indefinite suspension, Freddie looked even more lost than usual, and the Browns were on their way to losing four of the last five games. 

Fast forward to today and we find the 4-1 Browns taking on the 4-0 Steelers This year, the Browns will be taking on the bane of their existence, Ben Roethlisberger. He’s 23-2-1 against Cleveland in his career and has never lost to the Browns in Pittsburgh. (Actually, until last week he held the record for the most wins at FirstEnergy Stadium.) For so many years, Ben has woken up twice a season and probably wasn’t too worried about eating a good breakfast, getting to the game on time, and he probably didn’t even go the offensive walk through the day before. However, the atmosphere tonight will likely be a little bit different, and I imagine that Mike Tomlin will have his team amped up and ready to go. We’ve already heard from Cam Heyward, who said he plans to inflict “good punishment” on the Cleveland Browns. The fracus from last year is still a pretty fresh wound for both teams, and a team that can maintain their composure will have a decided advantage. On our side of the ball, Stefanski has certainly preached that message, and I think the players recognize how important that will be. I do not think that Myles Garrett is approaching this game differently from any other. That is to say, he is incredibly prepared each week, and he has a physical intensity that can overwhelm an entire offensive line and force a team to scheme just for him. I think he looks forward to playing against Big Ben, he’s probably the hardest QB in the league to actually tackle, not because he’s elusive or quick, but because he’s built like a pyramid and weighs 240 pounds. He also gets rid of the ball quickly, so getting a sack on Roethlisberger is really quite an accomplishment.

Much has been made of the undefeated Steelers this season, but even a quick glance at the standings reveals that Pittsburgh has four wins, and their opponents are a combined 3-15-1. Early in the season it is really difficult to identify strong and weak teams, but that stat jumps off the page. In other words, they have played the dregs of the league so far, so they ought to be scoring 30 points a game. Roethlisberger has been sharp so far, ten touchdowns and one pick, but once again it isn’t against great defense. On the other side of the ball, it’s hard to assess the Pittsburgh defense, they’ve not played a good offensive team yet. But, the Steeler defense always seems to get up for a game against the Browns, and my sense is that they’re going to be stingy today. 

The Browns, on the other hand come into the contest a little banged up. Baker has bruised ribs, OBJ was sick all week, Landry and the Scottish Hammer are both questionable. Wyatt Teller left the Indy game early on, but Chris Hubbard played well at guard in his absence, so hopefully the offensive line can give Baker some protection tonight. The Browns are ridiculously thin at safety, and in the secondary generally. I think Pittsburgh is going to try to exploit that, and I think we’ll know right away if this is going to be a shootout, or a conservative slog-it-out kind of game. I would feel a whole lot better about tonight if the second half last week hadn’t been so dreadful. And of course, the Browns routinely give up 30 points a game, so all of this points to the Browns really having their hands full on the road today.  I do think that the Browns defensive line can cause problems for Pittsburgh, and hopefully get to Big Ben from time to time and keep their offense a little off balance. Also, hopefully this week the Browns can perform better on special teams, and just kick off into the endzone, that 101 yard kickoff return last week could have been a real killer for the Browns. We might be on our backup punter tonight (Cody Parkey) so that could prove troublesome as well.

All that being said, I believe that these two teams are not that far apart in overall quality. I think the advantage Cleveland has is at the skill positions on offense, I would rather have OBJ, Landry, and Kareem Hunt instead of Eric Ebron, Smith-Schuster, and James Conner. (I am totally discounting the performance last week of Chase Claypool, he’s from Canada after all, he should have been a hockey player) I like the Browns to win this game tonight on the last possession, 24-20.

Go Browns.

OBJ saves the day in Dallas, and the Colts come to town

It’s really difficult being a Cleveland Browns fan, even when it shouldn’t be. For example, we went on the road last week and put up 49 points on the vaunted Dallas Cowboys. The Browns are 3-1, and that’s pretty rare air for this franchise in the past couple of decades and we should be excited about that. Cleveland ran for over 300 yards, and even had some crazy gadget plays for touchdowns. But when you’re from Northern Ohio, it’s always about waiting for the other shoe to fall, and after celebrating for a few hours the naysayers began to point out the obvious. The Browns have three wins against pretty terrible teams (combined 3-8-1) and you could probably be critical of Baker Mayfield as well, he has pretty pedestrian numbers by most metrics (180 yards/game and 62% completion). The defense is allowing 31 points per game, and near the cellar in this league. And while the Cowboy game was their most exciting win, they were up 41-14 and needed a miracle play from OBJ to win the game. So yes, the critics are quite correct to make those observations and point out that despite three wins, the Browns haven’t actually played that well.

However, recall that here at 4338 we are all about accentuating the positive, disregarding traditional statistical analysis, and celebrating whenever we can. So hell yes, we should be excited about the Browns! They are scoring points like crazy, the defensive line is eating opposing quarterbacks for breakfast, and there isn’t a team in the league more excited about a game on Sunday. It is such a shame (in 100 ways) that fans won’t be jamming that stadium tomorrow and creating a raucous atmosphere reminiscent of the Kardiac Kids from the 1980’s. A win on Sunday puts them at 4-1 with games against the Steelers, Bengals, and Raiders up next, and people in Cleveland will be drooling about playoff possibilities. Before we move on to breaking down the Colts, there are a few more observations to make from Dallas. First off, I was completely wrong a few weeks ago to speculate if OBJ is a guy who helps a team win games. He had three touchdowns, and seemed to be a video game character more than an actual human being. I also was critical of Austin Hooper, but he did have 5 catches and his first touchdown as a Brown. However, I am still sticking with my guy Harrison Bryant who had 4 catches and blocked like nobody’s business against Dallas. Again the Browns won the turnover battle forcing three takeaways from the Cowboys, and of course the 307 rushing yards without Nick Chubb is remarkable. All that said, nothing is easy as a Browns Fan, and when the lead shrank to 41-38 it wasn’t a good feeling for anybody in Northern Ohio.

This week, the Indianapolis Colts come calling to FirstEnergy Stadium. I can only imagine the collective sigh of relief being exhaled (through a mask) by all the Cleveland Browns reporters who won’t have to make the trip to our strange neighbor to the west. Truth be told, I have to go to my cheat sheet about states that start with the Letter “I” to differentiate between Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and Idaho. I know Idaho is the one with the crazy anti-government militias, Illinois is the one with Chicago and their terrible so-called deep dish pizza, and Iowa is the one with the baseball field in a cornfield. So that leaves Indiana; home of the Little 500 bicycle race that inspired the academy award winning film Breaking Away* It was also the location of Elvis’ last performance a couple of months before his death, and the place where Castle Wolfstein was invented for the Apple II home computer in 1981. So clearly the Hoosier state has a long and storied history of being culturally relevant, albeit in a midwestern niche.

For the second time in a month, the Browns will take on a relocated team, one that was callously ripped out of a city, leaving a fan base and an entire region high and dry. Last month it was the Ravens, and we all remember 1995 when Art Modell made the infamous announcement about relocating the Browns to Maryland. A decade before that, Baltimore Colts owner Bob Irsay moved the Colts to Indianapolis literally in the middle of the night, via a fleet of Mayflower moving trucks. Point being, Indianapolis doesn’t exactly have 75 years of NFL history to claim as their own. While the Colts franchise can collectively claim Peyton Manning, Johnny Unitas, Marvin Harrison, John Mackey, and Art Donovan, none of those guys are suiting up tonight. And actually, the 2020 version of the Colts is a little bereft of superstars. The big offseason addition is quarterback 39-year-old Phillip Rivers, who has spent the last 16 seasons throwing passes for the San Diego / Los Angeles Chargers. He’s definitely a hall-of-famer with 60,000 yards passing and 400 touchdowns in his career, and is quite accustomed to lighting up the scoreboard. Beyond Rivers, it’s not exactly a who’s who of NFL talent. Jonathan Taylor is the leading rusher, and somebody named Mo Alie-Cox is the leading receiver. There are no real defensive superstars, but they play very cohesively, and the defensive line gets a lot of run nationally for being among the best in football. The Colts also lead the league with seven interceptions and are allowing a paltry 160 yards of passing per game.

I’ve read a few pieces this week and of course listened to a few episodes of Orange and Brown Talk , and there seems to be a prevailing opinion that this Colts defense is something special, and we are likely to have a hard time moving the ball against them. Statistically, they look great on defense, but those stats don’t always take into account the quality of the opponents. Like Cleveland, the Colts are 3-1 but two of their wins are against the Vikings and Jets, who are both winless on the season. Their other win is against the fraudulent Chicago Bears (and their fraudulent pizza) because the Bears have 2 wins against winless teams as well. The two previous, unnecessarily complicated sentences are meant to indicate that the Colts are not really as good as they may appear. For example, the Colts offense hasn’t scored more than 2 touchdowns in any one game, and they had some timely help from their defense along the way. The way Cleveland is clicking on offense, the Colts will have to score a lot in order to keep up, and this could be yet another high scoring affair. Truth be told, there are a lot of similarities between these two teams and I think it will be a one score game. The Browns have a huge advantage at the skill positions on offense, and I think Myles Garrett will likely harass Rivers all night long. I’m picking the Browns to win this game 31-27.

Go Browns.

*This a great movie, but I had no idea it won an Academy Award (best screenplay) or that it was nominated for a total of five Academy Awards. It even inspired a short-lived TV show starring Shaun Cassidy and was set as a prequel to the film.

 

A Week Three win, and a trip to DFW

Let’s not take too much delight in defeating the football team from Washington last week. Washington is terrible, their best defensive player missed most of the game, and despite five takeaways, the Browns still trailed going into the fourth quarter. I realize that at 2-1 the Browns are officially over .500 for the first time since 2014, and that’s worth noting. (Thanks national sports people acknowledging that fact about 15 times during the broadcast. We get it, the Browns have been terrible for a long time, roughly since WIlliam Isaly invented the Klondike Bar in Mansfield in 1922.) Regardless, the Browns locked down the win after outscoring Washington 17-0 in the fourth quarter with some bonafide smash-mouth football. It’s a strange sort of box score this week, the Browns scored 34 points, but only 300 total yards of offense, and Baker threw for only 156 yards. The Browns ran the ball 37 times, and threw it 23; while I do appreciate that this ratio reflects the strength of our team, I had high hopes of passes flying all over the place to OBJ, Landry, Hunt, and Hooper. At the end of the day, I shouldn’t nitpick a win, after all our stretch of 4 wins in 48 games isn’t distant history. For me, the positive takeaway from this game is that this defense is capable of making big plays and creating opportunities for the offense to have a short field. The negative takeaway is that I still don’t quite have a sense of what we are trying to do with the passing game. I’m particularly salty about Austin Hooper (Yes, I drafted him high in my fantasy football league) but right now he has all the earmarks of a guy who got the big contract, only to have productivity steadily diminish. Actually here’s a bold prediction: Harrison Bryant will finish the season with more catches and touchdowns than Austin Hooper. Time will tell obviously, but Bryant has a lot more fire in his play than Hooper right now.

It’s a road trip week, and The Browns find themselves in Arlington, Texas to take on the Dallas Cowboys. For whatever reason, the Dallas fan base comes into every season expecting to make a deep run in the playoffs, but then almost invariably they flame out along the way. They are a mediocre franchise by most measures (3 playoff wins out of 7 appearances in the last 20 seasons) and their most significant accomplishment might be the construction of their monstrosity of a stadium, AKA Jerry-World. The 1.2 billion dollar complex was largely paid for with taxpayer money, and even more egregious was the use of eminent domain to screw over homeowners whose property was usurped for the construction. All of this to create a facility that literally consumes more electricity than the entire nation of Liberia. 

Despite all the fanfare that surrounds “America’s Team”, they come into tonight’s contest with their backs against the wall. They are 1-2, and their only win was against a bad Atlanta team in week 2 by a score of 40-39. Even that win was a result of a bizarre onside kick, where the Falcons players apparently didn’t know the rules and gift-wrapped the win for the Cowboys. My point is that Dallas is not the team they think they are, or the national media thinks they are. Cleveland has a clear advantage in the running game, and I think Dallas is soft against the pass, as they’ve given up 9 touchdown passes in the last 2 weeks. Cleveland on the other hand has the opportunity to get to 3-1, and that would be the best start this team has had since the last millennium. So despite the fact that this is an early season game, there’s a tremendous amount riding on it for both teams, and I think it could be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend. 

What I anticipate is Cleveland committing to the run in the first few possessions, and hopefully creating some space to get the passing game going. The Browns defense can certainly give up points, so I think it’s going to be a barn burner and these teams are going to generate a lot of offense. Despite the Browns being a betting underdog, I am going to pick them to pick up a huge win on the road, by the score of 37-30.

Go Browns.