The Browns Head to Kansas City in Search of a Win (and maybe some burnt ends)

Can we all agree that the past calendar year is among the most bizarre in history*? Between murder hornets, a mysterious monolith that appeared and disappeared in the desert, warnings of falling iguanas in Florida and robot monster wolves being deployed in Japan, it’s been strange to say the least. Most unusual of all (in the world of sports at least) is the unbelievable story of the 2020 Cleveland Browns. The organization could have easily pointed to a new head coach, no real training camp, no fans, players coming and going each week, and a horrific global crisis as reasons to write off this season. But they did quite the opposite. Kevin Stefanski (surely coach of the year) kept this group focused, emphasized being tough, smart, and accountable on a weekly basis, and consequently the Browns went 11-5 and then ran up 48 points en route to destroying the Steelers on the road in the first round of the playoffs. Strange days indeed.

Going back to last week, veteran Cleveland reporters like Terry Pluto, Mary Kay Cabot and others all picked the Steelers to win. That’s kind of a strange thing to me, but not because I would always expect hometown reporters to pick their team to win. It was pretty apparent to me that the Steelers played atrocious football the previous 5 weeks, and the Browns were absolutely the more confident team going into the game. Those things matter, despite that most national analysts spend time on the x’s and o’s about the game. I would have expected the reporters that are closest to this team to recognize that the Browns team was likely to score a bunch of points against the Steelers. You can find all sorts of analytics on DVOA, air yards per pass attempt, and other obscure stats at 538 and other sites, but it’s the local beat reporters that have their finger on the pulse of the team. I follow this team closely, almost on a daily basis, and I can genuinely say that I was confident of going to Pittsburgh and getting a win against an ancient quarterback, and a very discombobulated team.

That brings us to this week, the divisional round of the playoffs. (It’s tough to say that aloud without a little bit of chicken skin) Let’s be clear about something, the Browns CAN absolutely win this game. Any team can beat any other team on any day, Al Pacino taught us that in 1999. The Browns are going to have 10-12 possessions, and I like their chances to move down the field and put points on the board. We are a difficult team to defend with a power run game and a gunslinger quarterback. I feel like a lot of analysts are too quick to check out point spreads as some sort of indicator of who is likely to win. Here’s a quick lesson in gambling economics for those uninitiated in sportsbook culture. The bookies absolutely do not care who wins the game. What they need is for half the money to be on one side, and half on the other side, then they can make their money on the juice. (In other words, when you bet $110 to win $100, the juice is that $10) So a point spread is set anticipating how the betting public will respond to the line, and the betting public are not football experts. Point being, I don’t think KC being favored by ten points is all that meaningful to the outcome of this game. The Chiefs haven’t beaten a team by more than six points in nine weeks, and the Browns are putting up points as well as anybody.

At this stage of the season, there are no teams that are here by accident. The Browns are not a 7-9 team that limped into the playoffs by winning a terrible division. They are a team that scored 35+ points six times this season, and were third in the league in rushing. They are a team with a monster offensive line that will be at full strength tonight for the first time in the long time. Landry, Hooper, Hunt are a formidable trio catching the ball. (Particularly because KC gives up a lot of yards on passes to running backs) Kevin Stefanski is as prepared as any coach in the league and a great in-game manager. Baker has thrown one interception in the last 10 games, and while he’s not been sensational, he has had this team in a position to win at the end of almost every game this season.

Look, I get it. Kansas City is the defending superbowl champion, they have a freakishly athletic quarterback, and they’ll be well-rested when they play at home tonight. They are an offensive machine, and probably have the most scoring drives under 2 minutes in the history of the NFL. But, they are also a team that had to have miraculous comebacks in each playoff game last year, rallying from being down at least 10 points. In the event that the Browns get a lead in the second half, we are perfectly built to run the ball over and over again and limit KC’s second half possessions. Speaking of running, we saw Kareem Hunt run like a man possessed against Pittsburgh, and you can be sure that coming back to Kansas City will create a special opportunity for him. More than all of that, once again the Browns get to play with nothing to lose, and all of the pressure is on the Chiefs, who are expected to steamroll the Browns tonight. We have seen Andy Reid have some pretty inexplicable losses in the playoffs through his career, but with such a talented roster, it’s hard to see a self-inflicted Chiefs implosion happen like last week. All that being said, I truly believe this is going to be a one possession game late, and that the last team with the ball is going to score and win. That team is going to be the Cleveland Browns, and they are going to head into the AFC Championship game after winning tonight 33-30.

Go Browns.

*Obviously far more relevant and unexpected things happened in 2020 like COVID, the election, and the armed insurrection in D.C. two weeks ago. For me, this blog is chance not to think about those things for a brief period of time, a little distraction can be a healthy thing.

 

Sweet Fancy Moses (Cleaveland)!

Now that was some kind of football game. It’s five days later and I’m still not 100% sure it actually happened. (After 10 months in COVID lockdown, my sense of time, and reality, fluctuates.) When Maurkice Pouncey snapped the ball 10 feet over Roethlisberger’s head and the Browns recovered it for a touchdown, it was as if the planet had a moment of vertigo and when the fog cleared, the Browns lead 7-0 fourteen seconds into the game. Moments later, Big Ben was picked off, and Landry went for a 40 yard score a few plays later. But the life of a Cleveland Browns fan is never easy, and even at 28-0 I told the staff here at 4338 that somehow this was going to be a close game in the second half. That’s the unfortunate price of being a Cleveland fan, we can’t even take a minute to relish the fact that we were up 4 scores, on the road, against a QB that has treated us like a middle school JV football team. Even with some angsty moments in the second half, the game proceeded basically as you would expect when a team has an enormous lead. Cleveland played basically a prevent defense, and Pittsburgh was forced to throw the ball all over the yard (to a tune of 500 yards) No need to recount all of the details, but a few hours later, the Browns were headed back to Cleveland with a 48-37 playoff on the road, something they hadn’t done since 1969. 

The Monday morning chatter on ESPN was exactly what I expected. The tone was very much about the Pittsburgh collapse, and not so much about Cleveland overcoming all kinds of adversity to grind out a win against a hated rival. Despite the head coach watching from his basement, a fourth string lineman who had to drive in from New Jersey, players missing on both sides of the ball, and injuries the Browns maintained their composure and notched a historic win. Across the board, everybody had picked against the Browns going into the game, and it’s pretty lame on Monday morning to make the claim that “I’m not surprised the Browns won.” These are the same people who listed 10 reasons that the Browns couldn’t win, just own it, tip your cap to the Browns and admit you were wrong.

You know who wasn’t surprised? The editor-in-chief here at 4338, yours truly. I will admit that 28-0 at the end of the first was unexpected, but I truly believed that we were going to show up, play like our hair was on fire, and eke out a win. I wrote about the lack of pressure last week, and I think that Baker and the rest of the offense played like there was nothing to lose. (And I think we’ll see that again in KC this weekend.) It helped that Mike Tomlin made some very questionable decisions, and I wish I could have heard those yinzer Stiller fans complaining about him this past week. He’s a great coach, who had a really bad day in a huge spotlight. That organization will get back on track, but starting 11-0 and finishing 1-5 is a real gut punch. Plus they’ve got all sorts of salary cap issues and a quarterback with an adjusted age of 61.2 years. But as the game went on, it was clear that Cleveland came to play, and that Pittsburgh couldn’t get out of their own way. Talk about shaking off decades of playoff futility, and now the Browns find themselves in a position to make some more history. They’re playing with house money, and will have a full complement of players and coaches when they head to either Kansas City weekend. (Which weirdly is in two states?) So for the second week in a row, Cleveland can play with reckless abandon against an opponent that everybody in sports will say win comfortably. Look for a game preview Sunday morning, and probably you can guess where I am going to fall on prognostication.

"So you're saying there's a chance..."

One of the truly great things about sports is that there is room for unpredictability. Actually, more so than that, unpredictability is often highly sought after. That’s why we all check in on the 1-16 and 2-15 matchups in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament, just hoping to be a vicarious part of that momentous upset, hoping to see a tiny, overmatched program overcome a blue-blood school loaded with NBA talent. (See UMBC against UVA in 2018 or Lehigh beating Duke in 2012.) Every Monday morning after the first week of NFL playoffs, there is always a “Can you believe ___ beat ___?” For example, the 9-7 Giants went to 15-1 Green Bay in 2012 and won 37-20, and the 7-9 Seahawks beat the 11-5 Saints 41-36. The reality is that the teams in the playoffs are there for a reason, and every roster in the NFL is full of world class talent. So playoff “upsets” aren’t really all that surprising considering these are the top third of teams in the league.

Probably the more astute readers of 4338 are getting an idea that I am headed towards picking the Browns today, and they’re quite correct about that. Clearly many things are working against the Browns today. Joel Bitonio, Denzel Ward, Olivier Vernon, and head coach Kevin Stefanski will not be in Pittsburgh Sunday night. The team has had a total of 2.5 hours of practice time in the last 2 weeks. They’re playing at Heinz Field, a place they haven’t won since 2003, and playing against Big Ben who has a 24-2-1 record against the Browns. It took all the Browns had to beat a Steeler team last week that rested several of their best players. So I get why the national perspective so heavily leans towards Pittsburgh. But the result of this game is certainly not a forgone conclusion.


But here are some things that are true about the Pittsburgh Steelers:

• They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games
• The Steelers are dead last in the league in rushing; 85 ypg and 3.6 ypc
• Ben Roethlisberger has an adjusted age of 53.4 years (meaning he’s not mobile, and can’t throw the ball very far anymore)
• Juju Smith-Schuster is an idiot, and wrote some checks his teammates will have to cash.

Point being, the Steelers are not carrying any good mojo into the playoffs although I do think that most of that team sees an out-of-sorts Browns team as the perfect opponent. However, I think this whole scenario places much more pressure on Pittsburgh than on the Browns. Cleveland can absolutely play with nothing to lose, it’s already been the best year since 1999, the team went 11-5 far exceeding most predictions (including my own). Pittsburgh is the team that started out 11-0 and has since wilted like turnips greens in hot beef broth. Can you imagine the feeling in Pittsburgh if the Steelers lost this game tonight? I can, and they’d have to sit in that for a calendar year until the playoffs next year. I bet that scenario has creeped in the minds of some of these players, or perhaps this team is already looking ahead to the Chiefs next week. The latter idea is probably pretty unlikely, because as much as I dislike this team, their fans, their colors, and their parking lot, I have always believed that Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league, and doesn’t really get enough recognition. He’s been saying the right things all week in the media (and at practice I’m sure) but I just have a feeling that a number of those players do think they’re going to play the “same old Browns”.

This version of the Cleveland Browns is unlike any other in recent history. We’ve got a brash, young quarterback who can inspire teammates and we’ve got a creative and more importantly unflappable head coach in Kevin Stefanski. Despite his absence tonight, his influence will still be felt. He coached a team that hasn’t lost 2 straight games all season, he’s overcome COVID issues, injury issues, etc. and has created a steady culture in the organization. I’m sure the first 20-25 plays tonight are scripted, and I expect to see lots of screen passes to tight ends, Nick Chubb will have 15 carries in the first half, and they’ll take some shots down the field to Higgins and Peoples-Jones. Myles Garrett gave a great interview and plans on playing like his hair is on fire, and hopefully we get a glimpse of pre-COVID Myles tonight. The Browns have got to get pressure on Big Ben and make him rush some throws, he’s been more prone to throwing picks than years past so that’s an area we can take advantage of. More than anything, the Browns are going to need to hold on the ball for long stretches. In their 3 best wins this year (Colts, Titans, Giants) they had the ball 10 minutes more than the opponent. We’ve got the rushing game to do that, but that is predicated on having a lead first. This game tonight is all about the offense, and my sense is that the most likely way to win is in a shootout and the Browns will need 30+ points to do that. If the defense or special teams can chip in a score or turnover(s) that would help immensely of course, so maybe can get a lucky break that way.

I was listening to Orange and Brown Talk this week and one fan hit it right on the head for me. He said he was just hoping it’s a one possession game in the fourth quarter, and I agree wholeheartedly. If it is tight late, then the pressure really goes on Pittsburgh, and I think with his back against the wall, Baker Mayfield tends to play well. Since I pick a score each week, I feel like I am contractually bound to do so at this point. I think the Browns get the job done tonight and beat the Steelers tonight 34-30.

Go Browns.

The Promised Land Awaits....

Steelers-Browns. Ohio State-Michigan. Liverpool-Manchester United. Earl Anthony - Mark Roth. Rivalries so filled with vitriol and hatred that children are advised to avert their eyes from the television. Stories are still told by the village elders of clashes from decades ago, when Joe “Turkey” Jones tried to plant Terry Bradshaw’s head in the turf at Municipal Stadium, or when the Browns won in Pittsburgh 51-0 in 1989. Even as one-sided as this rivalry has been in the last 2 decades, the week leading up to the game is always special. What makes it different in January of 2021, is that this game is actually incredibly important for the Browns. Because of a disastrous trip to New Jersey last week (as most NJ trips tend to be), the Browns find themselves in a very simple position: win and you’re in. Yes, there are some crazy scenarios where the Browns could lose and still make the playoffs, but I refuse to even discuss those possibilities. Although I’d much rather have clinched last week, it is still amazing to be playing a game in the last week of the season that could put us in the playoffs. Usually about the middle of November, most of the talk on sports radio and blogs is about firing the head coach, and who might be available the following season. About the beginning of December, the discussion shifts to the upcoming draft, and who the Browns might be taking in the top 5. So the Browns completely controlling their own playoff destiny in the last week of the season is unknown territory for bloggers and fans alike. It is nothing short of invigorating for the game in week 17 to carry so much meaning for the Cleveland Browns.

However, it carries zero meaning for the Pittsburgh Steelers. It seems like they are quite content with the #3 seed, so they are leaving a whole bunch of starters back in Pittsburgh today. Pouncey, TJ Watt, Cameron Heyward, Joe Haden and most significantly Cleveland Browns liquidator Big Ben will all be meeting up at Fuel & Fuddle in Oakland to watch the game. So that means instigator Mason Rudolph will be under center for the Steelers, and you can bet that the CBS pregame discussion will spend a good amount of time on the incident from last year. I wrote a bit about the fight afterwards, and there’s not much more to say a year later. Myles Garrett has done everything and more to restore his reputation as a player and as a man, and Mason Rudolph has gone on to attempt 4 passes this entire season. At this point, both guys are saying the right things about the game today, and deflecting the attention towards their respective teams as a whole. But I bet dollars to doughnuts that Myles Garrett can’t wait to wreak havoc on the Steeler backfield and help put this Browns team in a position to win their way into the playoffs.

As far as the actual game is concerned, it is really difficult to get a sense of how this game could unfold. Mike Tomlin is one of the all-time great coaches in this league, and a master motivator to his team. The guys that will suit up for Pittsburgh today are likely playing for their jobs, and desperately need a little good tape on themselves for the upcoming offseason. That’s a pretty strong motivator, and also nobody is in this league by accident, so these guys are NFL players that are capable of making plays. It looks like Vegas has the Browns around a 9 point favorite, which at first glance seems like a lot of points to cover. Don’t get me wrong, I feel like if the Browns offense is clicking they can score 35 points on anybody, and if the defense is even just average the Browns ought to cover that point spread easily. But I have watched a whole bunch of these games come down to the last possession. Also, the Browns are missing Denzel Ward, Andrew Sendejo, BJ Goodson, Harrison Bryant, and maybe Wyatt Teller, and all are impact players on this team. The point is that even though the Steelers are resting a lot of starters, these two teams are closer than it might appear.

One area where these teams are miles apart are in the run game. With Chubb and Hunt, the Browns have one of the best rushing attacks in the league averaging 145 yds/game and 4.7 yds/carry. The Steelers are dead last in running the football at 84.4 yds/game. (Franco Harris, Jerome Bettis, and Rocky Bleier must be horrified,) And in the last 5 games Pittsburgh has averaged a measly 2.8 yards per attempt, so despite James Conner’s success in the past, I expect the Steelers will struggle mightily to run the ball today. On the flip side, I anticipate a run heavy attack from the Browns and they are more likely to have 53 rushing attempts as opposed to 53 pass attempts like last week. Furthermore, I can’t imagine the Steelers are going to invest much in their defense against the Browns, there’s a good chance we would play each other again next week, so Tomlin probably wants to keep his defense pretty vanilla today. Baker has his wide receivers back this week, and hopefully they can stretch the defense enough to let Chubb and Hunt do their damage. One thing of concern for the Browns is their struggles on 3rd and short, and especially on 4th and short. I love that Stefanski likes going for it on fourth down, but we really struggle with the quarterback sneak. I think in those scenarios today the ball will be in Chubb’s hands almost every single time. That is an area that the Browns have got to get cleaned up heading into the playoffs. (If the ghost of Otto Graham is willing.) Even typing the words “kicking game” sends shivers down my spine because journeyman Cody Parkey has been a train wreck as of late. Today I don’t anticipate Parkey having pressure filled moments, but I can tell you he had better make every extra point if he wants to have a job the following week. Like I said earlier, I think the Browns can get a lead early, probably Pittsburgh will struggle to move the ball, and the Browns running game can eat a lot of clock. I think despite all the pressure and the ramifications of this game, I expect Stefanski’s unflappable demeanor to permeate this team, and this will be a very workmanlike effort today, much like the Giants game 2 weeks ago. I think the Browns will come out ahead today 24-17 and head into the playoffs for the first time since 2002.


Go Browns.