"So you're saying there's a chance..."

One of the truly great things about sports is that there is room for unpredictability. Actually, more so than that, unpredictability is often highly sought after. That’s why we all check in on the 1-16 and 2-15 matchups in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament, just hoping to be a vicarious part of that momentous upset, hoping to see a tiny, overmatched program overcome a blue-blood school loaded with NBA talent. (See UMBC against UVA in 2018 or Lehigh beating Duke in 2012.) Every Monday morning after the first week of NFL playoffs, there is always a “Can you believe ___ beat ___?” For example, the 9-7 Giants went to 15-1 Green Bay in 2012 and won 37-20, and the 7-9 Seahawks beat the 11-5 Saints 41-36. The reality is that the teams in the playoffs are there for a reason, and every roster in the NFL is full of world class talent. So playoff “upsets” aren’t really all that surprising considering these are the top third of teams in the league.

Probably the more astute readers of 4338 are getting an idea that I am headed towards picking the Browns today, and they’re quite correct about that. Clearly many things are working against the Browns today. Joel Bitonio, Denzel Ward, Olivier Vernon, and head coach Kevin Stefanski will not be in Pittsburgh Sunday night. The team has had a total of 2.5 hours of practice time in the last 2 weeks. They’re playing at Heinz Field, a place they haven’t won since 2003, and playing against Big Ben who has a 24-2-1 record against the Browns. It took all the Browns had to beat a Steeler team last week that rested several of their best players. So I get why the national perspective so heavily leans towards Pittsburgh. But the result of this game is certainly not a forgone conclusion.


But here are some things that are true about the Pittsburgh Steelers:

• They’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games
• The Steelers are dead last in the league in rushing; 85 ypg and 3.6 ypc
• Ben Roethlisberger has an adjusted age of 53.4 years (meaning he’s not mobile, and can’t throw the ball very far anymore)
• Juju Smith-Schuster is an idiot, and wrote some checks his teammates will have to cash.

Point being, the Steelers are not carrying any good mojo into the playoffs although I do think that most of that team sees an out-of-sorts Browns team as the perfect opponent. However, I think this whole scenario places much more pressure on Pittsburgh than on the Browns. Cleveland can absolutely play with nothing to lose, it’s already been the best year since 1999, the team went 11-5 far exceeding most predictions (including my own). Pittsburgh is the team that started out 11-0 and has since wilted like turnips greens in hot beef broth. Can you imagine the feeling in Pittsburgh if the Steelers lost this game tonight? I can, and they’d have to sit in that for a calendar year until the playoffs next year. I bet that scenario has creeped in the minds of some of these players, or perhaps this team is already looking ahead to the Chiefs next week. The latter idea is probably pretty unlikely, because as much as I dislike this team, their fans, their colors, and their parking lot, I have always believed that Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league, and doesn’t really get enough recognition. He’s been saying the right things all week in the media (and at practice I’m sure) but I just have a feeling that a number of those players do think they’re going to play the “same old Browns”.

This version of the Cleveland Browns is unlike any other in recent history. We’ve got a brash, young quarterback who can inspire teammates and we’ve got a creative and more importantly unflappable head coach in Kevin Stefanski. Despite his absence tonight, his influence will still be felt. He coached a team that hasn’t lost 2 straight games all season, he’s overcome COVID issues, injury issues, etc. and has created a steady culture in the organization. I’m sure the first 20-25 plays tonight are scripted, and I expect to see lots of screen passes to tight ends, Nick Chubb will have 15 carries in the first half, and they’ll take some shots down the field to Higgins and Peoples-Jones. Myles Garrett gave a great interview and plans on playing like his hair is on fire, and hopefully we get a glimpse of pre-COVID Myles tonight. The Browns have got to get pressure on Big Ben and make him rush some throws, he’s been more prone to throwing picks than years past so that’s an area we can take advantage of. More than anything, the Browns are going to need to hold on the ball for long stretches. In their 3 best wins this year (Colts, Titans, Giants) they had the ball 10 minutes more than the opponent. We’ve got the rushing game to do that, but that is predicated on having a lead first. This game tonight is all about the offense, and my sense is that the most likely way to win is in a shootout and the Browns will need 30+ points to do that. If the defense or special teams can chip in a score or turnover(s) that would help immensely of course, so maybe can get a lucky break that way.

I was listening to Orange and Brown Talk this week and one fan hit it right on the head for me. He said he was just hoping it’s a one possession game in the fourth quarter, and I agree wholeheartedly. If it is tight late, then the pressure really goes on Pittsburgh, and I think with his back against the wall, Baker Mayfield tends to play well. Since I pick a score each week, I feel like I am contractually bound to do so at this point. I think the Browns get the job done tonight and beat the Steelers tonight 34-30.

Go Browns.