Bad Luck in Kansas City, and the Texans Come to Town. (again)

Look, it's pretty simple to break down the loss in week one to the Kansas City Chiefs. You don’t need the football nerds at 538 or Pro Football Focus to sleuth out how this game got away from the Browns. Nick Chubb fumbled for the 4th time in his career and Jamie Gillan dropped a snap that hit him right in the hands. The ten points the Chiefs got for those miscues turned out to be the difference in the game. (Honorable mention for strange events in this game is John Johnson III not being able to track a ball that was in the air for what seemed like 30 seconds. I understand that Tyreke Hill is a tough cover, but that touchdown play wasn’t a function of Hill, but rather that Johnson couldn’t follow the ball.) The point is, that it took a comedy of errors for the Chiefs to pull this game out. I’m not dismissing the incredible offensive talent that Kansas City has, I just think it’s worth noticing that the Browns were in a position to beat this team on consecutive trips to Arrowhead stadium. Any way you slice it, the Browns woes in week one continue.*

Which brings us to week two, and perhaps the least interesting franchise in the NFL, the Houston Texans. Somehow, we are stuck playing this gross team for the second year in a row. Perhaps you’ll recall the thrilling matchup last year, when Cleveland led 3-0 going into the fourth quarter in horrific weather and ended up winning 10-7. That’s an unlikely scenario this year, as the weather should be perfect and I expect the Browns offense to run roughshod over the Texans. Houston is without serial assaulter Deshaun Watson so Tyrod Taylor will be under center for the Texans. I have a soft spot for him for some reason. Tyrod seemed like such a nice guy for his short stint in Cleveland, and I felt terrible for him last year when his lung was accidentally punctured by the team doctor from the Chargers just before a game last season. Last week, he led Houston to a 37-21 win over Urban Meyer and the hapless Jaguars. (If I were a gambling man, I would bet that Meyer doesn’t last the full season in Jacksonville.) That’s a meaningless win for Houston, they’re a 6-11 team at best, and will be for the foreseeable future.

Sounds like there are going to be a few changes from last week for the Browns. Jedrick Wills is unlikely to play on the offensive line, and linebacker Anthony Walker will not play either. Odell Beckham Jr will not be playing, and that’s a little mysterious. All the reports from camp and practice indicated he looked electric and was ready to go. He was a late scratch last week, and even warmed up in Kansas City. (barefoot for some reason) I thought for sure he’d get 10-15 snaps, not so much for targets but to get him running routes and being in a game. The Browns have been pretty tight-lipped about this, and I’m starting to wonder if his days are numbered in Cleveland. (Especially if Anthony Schwartz can be impactful) Making his debut for the Browns today is Grant Delpit at safety. This guy has terrible luck when it comes to injuries, and I think will be the most excited player from either team on the field.

I think this week is going to see Baker play with laser-like precision, I would not be surprised if he goes something like 22-26 for 2 TD’s and 300 yards. This Houston defense is terrible, and I think the Browns can run whatever offense they want. There isn’t much to fear from the Texans offense, this isn’t Warren Moon in 1990. I think they are going to struggle to put points on the board at all. What I think happens is that the Browns jump on this team early, get the home crowd all fired up, and steamroll Houston something like 38-16.

Go Browns.

*The last time the Browns won a road game in week one was 1994. I was sweating my way through CEN 575 (thank god for good lab partners), the internet was in its infancy, and Lisa Loeb was being played everywhere.

The Dangerous World of High Expectations in Cleveland

 All across Northern Ohio the air seems fresher today, the Cuyahoga River seems less turbid, and the parade of orange barrels on I-77 seems a little less frustrating. All because Christmas Eve has finally arrived. With barely 24 hours to go before kickoff, Northern Ohio is gripped in a wave of unbridled enthusiasm. Even the most grizzled, jaded Browns fans are now full of cockeyed optimism as the 2021 campaign is ready to launch. Browns Backers from far-flung places like Hamburg, Germany and Perth, Australia will be tuning in all hours of the night for the kickoff in Arrowhead stadium tomorrow. (Being unfamiliar with the workings of the International Date Line, it is possible that the fans in Australia have already seen the game, or maybe they won’t see it until Thursday) Regardless, the Browns head back to Kansas City to avenge the playoff loss from last January.* 

It’s an interesting matchup in terms of who has something to prove. The Chiefs folded like a cheap card table in the Superbowl, mustering only 3 field goals and losing to a geriatric quarterback. This is the same Chiefs team that led the league in total offense over the season. They are the more desperate of the two teams, and need to remind everybody that they are still the KC Chiefs; with the best tight end, the best QB, and maybe the most bizarre stadium food item anywhere. The Chiefs invested nearly half a Billion dollars in their quarterback, and you can bet they are planning on multiple championships to validate that ridiculous contract. Losing ignominiously in the superbowl makes for a very long offseason, and surely Kansas City can’t wait to get on the field and move on from last season. 

The Browns are a different story. Cleveland fans literally have lifetimes of being the doormat of the NFL, NBA, and MLB and badly want to sit at the grownup’s table at thanksgiving. For decades, the front office has stumbled around with terrible hires like Mike Holmgren and Hugh Jackson, they signed washed-up free agents like Andre Rison and Donte Stallworth, and not to mention drafting idiots like Johnny Manziel. We endured that national attention of the 0-16 parade, the factory of sadness video that just won’t go away, and of course the brutal losses to the Broncos from the 1980’s are brought up every year. So it’s completely understandable that Browns Fans are screaming from the rooftops about this team to anybody who will listen.

While it is definitely true that the fans crave national adoration, the organization likely does not. I think the front office and coaching staff are quite content to lurk in the shadows a bit, to quietly go about their business and start accruing wins. I think Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski are on the same page about a “let’s go to work” mentality. The Browns had a very active offseason, and the takeaway is that there are likely to be 9 new starters on defense in week one. That’s a good thing, as Cleveland was in the bottom half of the league by every defensive metric. I think they’d prefer to not be in the glaring spotlight of the national media, that can bring a lot of pressure to an organization. I think the Browns would be content to go into the season as an underdog in the division and use the first 4-5 games to get the offense dialed in with a few new faces. This league is all about scoring, and my sense is a team will need to average 30 points a game to get to the promised land. Of course the trick is to allow less than 30 points a game, and defensive coordinator Joe Woods has his hands full trying to field a cohesive unit. Without a doubt, the defense has to be better and that’s a big task without a lot of depth and so many new faces.

That brings to the actual game. Look, mathematically week one doesn’t matter at all. Last year, the Browns lost 38-6 and ended up a whisker away from the Super Bowl.** Actually there's a school of thought that the first 3 weeks don’t matter that much, Bill Belichick uses the first few weeks basically as preseason. This is especially true as of late because hardly any teams played many starters in the preseason. A very wise sports bettor once told me to avoid week one like the plague, that’s basically throwing darts, but nonetheless I’m not going to write a piece and not make a projection. (for entertainment purposes only) There are many things that point to the Chiefs winning this game. The Browns are historically bad in week one with only one win since 1999, the Chiefs are the most offensively talented team in football, and Arrowhead stadium is a significant home field advantage. The Browns have a revamped defense that hasn’t really played against a live offense, so that’s a big question mark. However, the Browns can afford to play with nothing to lose, and I expect the offense to be aggressive all day long. It remains to be seen how Odell Beckham Jr can affect the game coming off the ACL injury, but from all accounts at training camp he is still a freakishly gifted, fast athlete. Hopefully we see more of Kareem Hunt that we did in the playoffs. (So strange that he only touched the ball 7 times the whole game.) The hidden strength of the Cleveland Browns is the offensive line, so I feel confident that if they have a halftime lead, they can run the ball effectively and keep Mahomes off the field for long stretches. I think the Browns get on the gas pedal and score a bunch of points early, and end up winning 30-27.

Go Browns.

*I’m still incredulous that we punted with 4 minutes left. And it is unfathomable that Chad Henne was the player that tripped up a Superbowl run for the Browns.

**I read that the betting line in Browns-Bills would have been Buffalo -4. If the Browns had gone to Buffalo for the AFC Championship, there's no way that game is won by more than a touchdown. I think the Browns could have found some fourth quarter magic in that game and come out a winner.