It’s an interesting matchup in terms of who has something to prove. The Chiefs folded like a cheap card table in the Superbowl, mustering only 3 field goals and losing to a geriatric quarterback. This is the same Chiefs team that led the league in total offense over the season. They are the more desperate of the two teams, and need to remind everybody that they are still the KC Chiefs; with the best tight end, the best QB, and maybe the most bizarre stadium food item anywhere. The Chiefs invested nearly half a Billion dollars in their quarterback, and you can bet they are planning on multiple championships to validate that ridiculous contract. Losing ignominiously in the superbowl makes for a very long offseason, and surely Kansas City can’t wait to get on the field and move on from last season.
The Browns are a different story. Cleveland fans literally have lifetimes of being the doormat of the NFL, NBA, and MLB and badly want to sit at the grownup’s table at thanksgiving. For decades, the front office has stumbled around with terrible hires like Mike Holmgren and Hugh Jackson, they signed washed-up free agents like Andre Rison and Donte Stallworth, and not to mention drafting idiots like Johnny Manziel. We endured that national attention of the 0-16 parade, the factory of sadness video that just won’t go away, and of course the brutal losses to the Broncos from the 1980’s are brought up every year. So it’s completely understandable that Browns Fans are screaming from the rooftops about this team to anybody who will listen.
While it is definitely true that the fans crave national adoration, the organization likely does not. I think the front office and coaching staff are quite content to lurk in the shadows a bit, to quietly go about their business and start accruing wins. I think Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski are on the same page about a “let’s go to work” mentality. The Browns had a very active offseason, and the takeaway is that there are likely to be 9 new starters on defense in week one. That’s a good thing, as Cleveland was in the bottom half of the league by every defensive metric. I think they’d prefer to not be in the glaring spotlight of the national media, that can bring a lot of pressure to an organization. I think the Browns would be content to go into the season as an underdog in the division and use the first 4-5 games to get the offense dialed in with a few new faces. This league is all about scoring, and my sense is a team will need to average 30 points a game to get to the promised land. Of course the trick is to allow less than 30 points a game, and defensive coordinator Joe Woods has his hands full trying to field a cohesive unit. Without a doubt, the defense has to be better and that’s a big task without a lot of depth and so many new faces.
That brings to the actual game. Look, mathematically week one doesn’t matter at all. Last year, the Browns lost 38-6 and ended up a whisker away from the Super Bowl.** Actually there's a school of thought that the first 3 weeks don’t matter that much, Bill Belichick uses the first few weeks basically as preseason. This is especially true as of late because hardly any teams played many starters in the preseason. A very wise sports bettor once told me to avoid week one like the plague, that’s basically throwing darts, but nonetheless I’m not going to write a piece and not make a projection. (for entertainment purposes only) There are many things that point to the Chiefs winning this game. The Browns are historically bad in week one with only one win since 1999, the Chiefs are the most offensively talented team in football, and Arrowhead stadium is a significant home field advantage. The Browns have a revamped defense that hasn’t really played against a live offense, so that’s a big question mark. However, the Browns can afford to play with nothing to lose, and I expect the offense to be aggressive all day long. It remains to be seen how Odell Beckham Jr can affect the game coming off the ACL injury, but from all accounts at training camp he is still a freakishly gifted, fast athlete. Hopefully we see more of Kareem Hunt that we did in the playoffs. (So strange that he only touched the ball 7 times the whole game.) The hidden strength of the Cleveland Browns is the offensive line, so I feel confident that if they have a halftime lead, they can run the ball effectively and keep Mahomes off the field for long stretches. I think the Browns get on the gas pedal and score a bunch of points early, and end up winning 30-27.
Go Browns.
*I’m still incredulous that we punted with 4 minutes left. And it is unfathomable that Chad Henne was the player that tripped up a Superbowl run for the Browns.
**I read that the betting line in Browns-Bills would have been Buffalo -4. If the Browns had gone to Buffalo for the AFC Championship, there's no way that game is won by more than a touchdown. I think the Browns could have found some fourth quarter magic in that game and come out a winner.
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