Big Ben crushes dreams (again) and the Browns head to Cincy

Yikes. Not sure I can summarize the loss to the Steelers any more concisely than that. On the long, long list of deflating games that I was excited about for a week, this is by far the top of the list. (At least since 1999) I didn’t expect the Browns to roll over the Steelers, and full disclosure, I knew my 27-13 prediction was wildly ambitious. First off, it was legitimately difficult to stay awake during the 1930’s style football that was on display in the first half. (The only other game I can recall with less scoring was when the Browns beat the Bills 6-3 in 2009 in what was widely regarded as one of the most atrocious games ever played.) All week long, I was talking myself into believing that Nick Chubb returning would be impactful (it wasn’t) and that the Browns would be able to throw against Pittsburgh (they weren’t). If my wildest dreams are realized, then that’s the last time we see Roethlisberger play in Cleveland. He has absolutely owned the Browns for the better part of two decades, and he did it again with relative ease last week. It’s unreal how many different ways he’s done it; high scoring shootouts, defensive battles, massive blowouts, and once he led the winning drive while eating a Primanti Brothers sandwich. So honestly, perhaps nobody is surprised by the result last week.

Regardless, there are some talking points from this game to address. Jarvis Landry had a terrible game, and he knows it. Two clear drops and a fumble were likely the difference between winning and losing this game. It was a very uncharacteristic game from him, and I’d bet the mortgage he has 12 receptions and a touchdown against the Bengals this week. He’s a fiery guy, hates losing, and can inspire a locker room. (Cue Hard Knocks from a few years ago.) Baker wasn’t terrible, he just wasn’t anything special, and yes that could be partly due to his surrounding cast. But when the Browns got the ball at their own 40, with 3 timeouts, down by 5 points, I told my editor that this is where good teams go on to score and put a game away. It started out promising, but fizzled after a false start put us in 3rd and 16. Baker threw a 4 yard pass for some reason, then on 4th and 12 Landry couldn’t catch a ball that hit him in both hands. At that point, it was all over but the shoutin’.

The other major talking point could be a source of optimism. The defense played well, holding the Steelers to 9 points through the first three quarters. They held Pittsburgh to 4-13 on third down, and did their part to give the offense a chance to win the game. The defensive line is playing well as a unit, and probably the best aspect of this entire football team. The secondary struggled at times, I still can’t figure out why they get picked apart each week. They’ve given up 17 passing touchdowns in 8 games, which is third worst in the league. They seem more talented and athletic than that, I wonder how much of it is the scheme that Joe Woods is trying to roll out. It might be worth noting that if you take out the 47 points the Chargers scored on us, the Browns are allowing 19 points a game. (That type of dodgy statistical analysis is very similar to when my students are quick to dismiss an “outlier” in the data from the lab.) Point being, the defense is putting the offense in a good situation most weeks, and the offense only needs to be a little above average to start stringing some wins together.

Despite a loss and the Browns slipping to 4-4, by far the biggest story of the week was the release of Odell Beckham Jr. I guess the reason it is such a big story is because at one point, OBJ was a potential superstar like maybe we’ve never seen. But his actual list of accomplishments isn’t really that remarkable. The thing everybody knows about OBJ is the crazy one-handed catch against the Cowboys, in a game the Giants actually lost. He has played in one playoff game (a loss) and caught 4 passes for 28 yards. His numbers since coming to Cleveland are not even mediocre; in 29 games he has 1500 yards and 7 touchdowns. I don’t know why it didn’t click with Odell and Baker, but there is no question about it. The front office has seen enough, and the video Odell Sr. posted pushed OBJ right out of Cleveland. I bear no ill will to Odell, he is an incredible athlete, and a threat every time he touches the ball, but it’s just not meant to be here in Cleveland. I hope he has a great career somewhere else (hopefully in the NFC).

Next up Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Obviously I have used the phrase “the biggest game in recent memory” many times on this blog, but it’s not hyperbole to apply to this game. There are only 9 games left in the season, and it’s going to take 10 wins to make the playoffs, so the Browns have almost no room for error. They play the Ravens twice, they travel to Green Bay on Christmas day, and they play at the Patriots as well. So The Browns are going to have to really find a way to grind out 6 wins the rest of the way. Stefanski says the right things, about focusing on this week's opponent only, and all that, but surely that locker room knows that the playoffs probably hang in the balance of this game. And there are story loans galore in this game. Baker Mayfield desperately want to refute the implication that he isn’t a good enough quarterback to play with OBJ, Stefanski needs to come up with a game plan that will play to Baker’s strengths (something he hasn’t done particularly well), and I need a plan to stay awake until 10:30 CET time to see the end of the game. (Not as easy as it sounds with sick toddler all weekend) It’s hard to get a read on the players reaction to OBJ being released, I’m sure there’s a number of guys that think he gave the Browns a better chance to win when he played. (Turns out that is not statistically supported.) But winning cures all ills, so if the Browns can go out and score a bunch of points on the Bengals, they can go into preparing for the Patriots feeling a little more relaxed. It’s not often that I think it is necessary to score “style points” (I get it, a win is a win is a win.) But the Browns anemic passing game desperately needs a jump start, and I think everybody will breathe a little easier if the Browns can score 4 touchdowns. That’s definitely not a long shot, last year the Browns won both games 35-30 and 37-34. Of course, the Bengals are fired up for the game because two weeks ago they were the darlings of the NFL, and they promptly got beat by the one-win Jets. The Bengals offense is productive for sure, averaging 28 points a game, so I’m expecting fireworks today. Other things I’m expecting: David Njoku scores, Myles Garrett has a strip sack, Landry has 100+ yards and a touchdown, and the staff at 4338 makes it until the end of the game. I think the Browns are going to come out on top, by a score of 34-27.


Go Browns.