A humdrum trip to Florida, and the Giants come to town

Among the many clever, profound, and memorable things that legendary Giants coach Bill Parcells has said, “You are what your record says you are” isn’t one of them. Would you rather be the 2-0 Saints who have scored 62 more points than they have allowed, or the Houston Texans who are also 2-0 but have only scored only 8 more points than they have allowed? Or consider the 2-0 Steelers who have scored a total of 31 points, by way of 1 lonely touchdown and 8 field goals. (To be fair, Parcells’ comment becomes more true as the season progresses and the sample size becomes larger.)1

Regardless, the Browns are not 2-0, rather they sit squarely at 1-1 after a lackluster win over the listless Jaguars last week. It’s probably not fair to criticize the Jags for being listless, it must truly be soul-sucking to be forced to live in Jacksonville, Florida. Despite the occasional excitement that Florida Man brings, there’s really not a lot of options for fun in Jacksonville. (Although I do think there is a combination Applebees/dog track in town.) In any case, Deshaun Watson seems to have progressed from dead last in quarterback rating, to second from last. The scintillating 186 yards with no touchdowns was hard to turn away from, talk about must-see TV. The offense continued to look as disheveled as a hobo in Smichov (The hobo is right to be offended by this comparison). The defense looked good, almost great, although I’m not sure it was against an offensive juggernaut. And actually the Browns only lead 16-13 with 2 minutes to go, when the pride Cerritos College2, Cory Bojorquez, dropped a punt on the one yard line. Trevor Lawrence panicked, and took a safety which sealed the game. So perhaps this game is best described as a win, despite a shaky offense.

This weekend, the New York Giants come to town. Readers of this blog are familiar with the disdain I have for all of New York City, the New York Yankees, their shitty pizza, the stupid rat that tried to eat that shitty pizza, and the endless amount of scaffolding that encases entire city blocks. Probably the Giants are excited to be away from that sewer-like maelstrom on the eastern seaboard and come to Cleveland. However, they bring with them an 0-2 record, and are coming off a brutal last second loss last week. Daniel Jones is the skipper of this (foundering) ship, and is still shaking the rust off after an injury-shortened 2023 season. He is talented (hence the nickname “Danny Dimes”) and there are good pass catchers on this team, most notably Malik Nabers with 193 yards in games. The run game is terrible, and the defense is abysmal, so I’m confident that Cleveland can keep Nabers wrapped up and limit New York offense all day.

However, I really don’t know what to expect from The Browns on offense. Our superstar receiver Amari Cooper has been largely absent and ineffective so far. It could be he’s still irritated with the rumors that Cleveland was trying him over the summer, and he was barely around during training camp. So maybe the chemistry will improve over time. By all means, this ought to be a “get right” game and Cooper should go for 150 yards and 2 scores, and the Browns should control both sides of the ball. But the Browns have been known to brown things up now and again. However, despite my misgivings about this team, the coach, the ownership, the stadium, the peanut vendor in section 132…. I am still going to pick the Browns to win this game, something along the lines of 27-13.

1 It’s worth noting that the Chiefs are 2-0 with a 9 point differential, but teams that make deep playoff runs each year are exempt from this analysis. It’s reminiscent of the Patriots who were usually mediocre in September, only to roll over everybody in December and January. “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish” (quote attributed to me in the 1998 Pittsburgh Marathon)

2 Alumni from Cerritos College include Joe Gibbs, Bobby McFerrin, Marcelo Balboa, and John Force.

A Season On the Brink

 I don’t even know where to start this week. I could break down the 17 hits and six sacks that Watson took against Dallas last week. Or discuss the fact that there didn’t seem to be a discernible offensive strategy. Or lament that there isn’t much depth on the roster because we haven’t had a first round draft pick in 4 years. Or point out that Baker Mayfield who makes a fraction of Watson’s salary, threw for four TD’s with QBR of 83.2 in week one. (As opposed to Watson’s career worst performance with one TD, two picks, and a QBR of 13.5.)

But all those things are sort of like toppings on the same pizza. The underlying crust of the pizza is of course the ownership/front office. The cheese must be the fans? And the pizza oven is Cleveland Stadium/First Energy Stadium/Factory of Sadness/ Huntington Bank Stadium. (Perhaps this pizza metaphor is breaking down…or maybe I’m just really hungry.) In any case, the “pizza” that Andrew Berry and Jimmy Haslam have put together is more of an affront to actual pizza than the bullshit-casserole that Chicagoans apparently eat. Mike Lombardi recently made comments alluding to the dysfunction that exists between ownership and the GM, implying that there are too many people stirring the soup. (or pizza sauce). It’s pretty clear that Jimmy Haslam wants to be influential in drafting, signing free agents, etc but it looks like the track record so far is unremarkable. The drafting is probably the easiest thing to point to, Cleveland cannot seem to identify talent in rounds two, three, or four. Other teams can do that, and often have starters for multiple seasons that were drafted late.

Regardless, the Browns find themselves in a tough spot already this season. Unsurprisingly, more controversy is swirling around the Browns as Watson has now been accused (for the 61st time?) of sexual assault. Of course I believe in innocence until proven guilty, and this allegation is from 4 years ago. However, what is inarguable is that this only darkens the clouds swirling around this organization, and once again the focus is not on what’s happening on the field. While they should have been fielding questions about how to defend Ronnie “Sunshine” Bass, they were instead being dragged back into the details of Deshaun Watson’s private life. (I would have liked to hear more about how the team can fix the 8 things that went terribly against the Cowboys in week one.) Additionally, the Browns moved four players to the injured reserve, and it was announced yesterday that the starting tight end is out this week. It’s not clear who can step in for Njoku in terms of catching passes or blocking, but certainly it will be a drop off. The offensive line is in shambles once again, so it is hard to be optimistic about the run game, although weirdly last week they averaged almost 5 yards a carry, but then abandoned the run so Watson could throw 45 terrible passes. (19 total rush attempts for the game) All things considered, the Browns are probably secretly happy to be playing on the road this week. Boos were heard around Cleveland last week as Watson stumbled and bumbled around, and you can bet that the crowd would be calling for Jameis Winston this week early. (Winston comes with own baggage, the least of which is that he is a known crab leg shoplifter)

The Jaguars (sometimes mysteriously pronounced “jag-wires”) come into week two off a brutal loss last week. Travis Etienne was strolling into the endzone and would have made the score 20-7… had he not channeled his inner Earnest Byner and fumbled the ball. The Jags ended up losing on the road to a very mediocre Miami team 20-17. I’m told that they receivers are talented in Jacksonville, and that if Trevor Lawrence is comfortable, he can pick apart most defenses. So it will largely be up to Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith to bring pressure into the backfield. The first quarter should be very telling as both teams are going to try to establish the run game.

The last comment about Deshaun Watson: this game today is a very big deal for this season, and maybe his career. If he is as bad as last week, overthrowing guys by 4 yards and throwing slants to the feet of the receivers, the club might pull the trigger and see what they can do with Jameis Winston. The Browns showed last year they can win with different quarterbacks (Last year PJ Walker, Watson, DTR, and Flacco all won games last season.) So I don’t think the front office believes that they absolutely have to have Watson to win games. They think the defense can carry the day, and that an average performance from a quarterback puts them in a position to win. It’s not hyperbole to say that Watson hasn’t been good since 2020, it is statistically true. If they decide to change gears at QB, it will be in a sneaky manner like claiming Watson has an injury or something. Just you wait and see. 

Prediction time: The Browns defense will come out with their hair on fire and shut out the Jags for the first half. Meanwhile the Browns offense will have mustered 10 points in the half. Later in the game, Watson will account for a costly turnover, and the Browns will end up losing 21-20.

Also, enjoy the newest feature to 4338! Here are some stone-cold, lead-pipe picks for this week (for entertainment purposes only…)

• Browns-Jaguars under 41.5

• Chiefs -6.5  (if you can find a prop with

         KC -9.5, grab it!)

• San Francisco -4.5

• Philadelphia -6

• Take Luke Littler on the money line

            (-165) to beat Michael van Gerwen

            in the World Series of Darts.

Go Browns?