Astonishing Tales From the Shores of Lake Erie

It's six days later, and I am still not quite sure what to make of the Browns-Bengals clash. On one hand the Browns are now 6-7, have won four of the last five games, and haven't been eliminated from the playoffs yet, something that typically happens in early November every year. On the other hand, the Browns were thoroughly outplayed by the Bengals in Cleveland last week. (The 1-12 Bengals) Here a few statistics that might make that more clear:

• The Bengals have the worst rush defense in the NFL, and Nick Chubb was leading the league in rushing coming into the game. He carried the ball only three times in the first half.
• Cincinnati outgained the Browns 451-333 in total yards.
• Cincinnati ran 72 plays on offense, Cleveland ran 52.
• The Bengals had 27 first downs, the Browns had 17.
• Cincinnati lead the time of possession 35-25.
• Cincinnati also won the turnover battle as well.*

Actually a deeper dive in the rushing statistics makes it look even worse.  Nick Chubb had a huge 57 yard run early in the third quarter. Without that one play, the Browns would have finished with 89 yards rushing on 26 carries, an average of 3.4 yds per rushing attempt. And that is against the worst rush defense in the NFL. I'm no football genius, but I can tell you that part of the reason Cincinnati defended the run well is because the passing game was terrible. Baker once again was under 50% completion rate, threw two interceptions, and OBJ continues to wander in the desert. I cannot say that the Browns came into the game with a solid game plan, on a blustery day in Cleveland it seems like you would want Chubb and Hunt to carry it the majority of the time. The defense looked unprepared as well, as the Bengals rushed for 179 yards on 31 carries. To me, it looked like the Browns thought they could just show up and win by three scores. Now to be fair, I recognize that I am doing a lot of complaining about a win, but that's because the Browns can always manage to tarnish a win somehow. (For example, Baker trashing the Browns medical staff after the game.) In any case, between OBJ drama and Dr. Mayfield, the cloud of dysfunction continues to swirl around Cleveland.

I can't imagine what it's like in Baker Mayfield's apartment these days. He can't be stoked about only 11 completions last Sunday (fewest in the the entire league, and against a 1-12 team), he's running out of facial hair options, and his headband thing can't get much larger. And this is all with really good pass catching options including Landry, OBJ, Hunt, and Njoku back from injury. At times this season I have been very critical of Freddie mostly because I think at time his schemes haven't put Baker in a position to be successful. I have also been critical of John Dorsey because the offensive line has been in shambles this season, and there was no priority placed on that in the off season. However, the biggest question looming in the off season might be about Baker Mayfield. Tonight is a pretty big game for him, the Cardinals are last against the pass in yards/game (294) and have given up the most TD's through the air (32). Terry Pluto wrote that the Browns need to go into Arizona and run the ball all night, and just come back with a win. That's definitely the smart thing to do, but perhaps there's something to be said for letting Baker air it out to an extent. I wonder if his confidence is starting to wane a bit, despite his arrogance. To me, his downfield throws look terrible, and if it weren't for Landry's ability to catch everything, Baker would look a lot worse. Maybe there's some mystery injury that nobody is aware of, because there's not a lot of zip on the ball right now, and he doesn't look nearly as accurate as he did last year. If Mayfield stays true to his recent form and goes for 200 yards and 2 picks tonight, the Browns front office has got to start thinking about other options under center. It's going to be critical for John Dorsey and company to have enough information to really assess Baker's potential in this league. Baker will say (mostly) the right things in interviews, that's it's not about his individual stats, it's about wins and losses. But, I think he knows he ought to be able to light up the Cardinals tonight, and 320 yards and 3 TD's would go a long, long way for his confidence and the Browns overall mojo as well.

So that bring us to prediction time. Story lines abound in this game tonight; Baker vs. Kingsbury, Steve Wilks vs. the Cardinals, Freddie vs. himself, Baker vs. Kyler Murray, etc. I never buy into the idea that there is "extra motivation" for an individual or a team, so all of those so-called storylines are a lot of bunk in my opinion. Arizona looks like they're in free fall having lost 5 straight games. However, in case you're unclear about the 2019 Cleveland Browns, we're capable of losing to anybody, anywhere. Two rookie QB's have already posted wins against us (Hodges and Allen) and Kyle Murray looks more talented than those two dudes put together. We've shown that bad bad teams can run all over us, and keep our offense off the field. This really is the type of game that the Browns lose, on the road against a bad team, and it would completely dash all that playoff talk that is somehow circulating around Cleveland. However, I just can't brig myself to pick against the Browns this week.  I think the Browns win this in dramatic fashion somehow, 28-27. That's a lot of points between two bad teams, so I expect a couple of defensive scores in the mix. So the Browns should return to Cleveland with a record of 7-7, after a 2-6 start. I would characterize that as mildly impressive.

Go Browns.


*The interception on the Njoku catch was complete and utter horseshit. Even USA Today agrees with me. (Also, who knew that USA Today was still a thing? Are newspapers still a thing?) That call cost me a fantasy football playoff game, thanks for that Carl Cheffers. I hope the next game you referee is 8 year olds playing flag football in Suburban Omaha.