Last minute thoughts before kickoff

The past week has been fraught with activity over here in Prague. The headquarters of 4338 have been relocated to the bucolic village of Únětice, the lockdown in Prague has somewhat been lifted so it's back to work tomorrow, and of course the expat Cleveland community has been rocked by the news of Myles Garrett missing this peudo-playoff game in Cleveland tonight. With all that happening, I hope that the loyal readers of 4338 aren't put off by an abbreviated, last-minute post. Given the skyrocketing cases in Ohio, it's not all that surprising that the Browns had a case. However, it's the one guy that we absolutely cannot live without. Without question, Garrett has been the MVP for the Browns this year, and he simply cannot be replaced. The defense has struggled most of the year, and finding on Thursday that we're missing Myles is a tough pill to swallow. But regardless, it's next man up, and the defensive line will have to get contributions from other guys. (That means you Olivier Vernon)

In a shocking turn of events, it's cold and rainy in Cleveland, so this will most likely be a run-heavy game for the third game in a row. Obviously the return of Nick Chubb last week made all the difference. (even if avoided a touchdown for some reason) I think tonight the Browns will have 40-45 rushing attempts, and probably a lot of dump off passes. Philly is struggling everywhere right now, so it's difficult to see their offense all of the sudden exploding on the road in terrible conditions. I think the Browns win this game handily, something like 23-10.

Go Browns.

Browns catch their breath at the break and get healthy for a playoff push

That's right, I have now uttered to word "playoffs" for the first time this season. From Maple Heights to North Olmsted (and all points in-between) jinxes, curses, and hexes are firmly embedded in Cleveland sports folklore. (Most notably in 1987 when they adorned the cover of Sports Illustrated and were prognosticated to be the best team in the A.L., all they did was lose 101 games that year) So I do not use that word lightly, I recognize the gravity of even thinking about playoffs after only eight games. But the next three weeks are huge if they want to be in that conversation, so in way the playoffs begin today for the Cleveland Browns. They've had some time to adjust to life without OBJ, and this week Chubb, Hooper, and Teller will all be back on the field. Mary Kay Cabot reported that this past week that practice was high energy, and the feel around the team was boisterous and enthusiastic. That's a far cry from how we have felt after week eight in years past, and a convincing win today would really get the ball rolling in a playoff direction. It's not really worth breaking down the debacle against the Raiders two weeks ago. Nothing worked, the weather was terrible, and it was clearly a team limping into the bye week. However, that loss could loom large in the standings a month from now. It looks to me like five of the seven playoff spots are pretty much locked up: Steeler, Ravens, Chiefs, Bills, Titans are all probably in. So Browns, Colts, Raiders, and maybe the dolphins are battling for the remaining two spots. So there's not a lot of room for error down the stretch.

Today opponent is exactly what you would hope for when you're looking to get the season back on the right foot. The Houston Texans are basically terrible at everything including (but not limited to) passing, running, catching, kicking, and tackling. On the Orange and Brown Talk podcast this week, longtime writer from the Houston John McLain was a guest and he did not mince words in tearing apart this Texans team. He predicted that the Browns will run for at least 200 yards today, and that Houston would have a tough time scoring 17 points. He was very clear that the offense is all Deshaun Watson, and if you can limit his opportunities, there are not a lot of other options. (When pressed to comment on the situation at Nakatomi Plaza in December of 1988, he refused to comment) In any case, this ought to be a game where the Browns can control the ball, run at will, and score some points. But this the Browns, and we know they can fall flat in big moments, so the first couple of possessions tonight are going to be critical. It's not often that I bring in a foreign journalist to comment on the Browns, but today I tracked down a long-suffering Everton football fan and middle school PE teacher par excellence. His prediction was succinct, (despite not using the word bloke, knackered, or chuffed) and I think rings true. "I expect the Cleveland boys to be too strong for those guys from the Lone Star State." Truer words have never been written in this blog. Tonight I like the Browns to start a playoff push with a convincing win, something along the lines of 30-17.

Go Browns.

Spider 2Y Banana Comes to Cleveland

Las Vegas. Sin City. Home to dollar craps table and $2.99 prime rib. A place where bail bonds storefronts outnumber public libraries by an 8:1 ratio. Home to the world’s largest Ferris wheel, the world’s largest Hooters restaurant, and the world’s smallest sense of decorum and decency. This is after all a place with a restaurant that seems to take pride in contributing to coronary health problems by selling unfiltered cigarettes and milkshakes made with butterfat. (Way to go America) However, I have a love/hate relationship with Las Vegas. I have logged countless hours at the craps tables at the Golden Nugget and Golden Gate casinos, and the staff here at 4338 used to make one or two trips a year to Vegas. I once ate enough food at the Aria Buffet that I needed to buy bigger pants in their gift shop for the trip back to gritty Fremont Street. I even once had a trip where the only thing I won was a free popcorn at the movie theatre. (Sad, but true story) However, as much as I somewhat enjoy going there, there is still a weirdness because LAS VEGAS SHOULDN’T EVEN EXIST. This is made perfectly clear as you fly into Las Vegas. It’s a strange sight, the city in the middle of a stark, arid landscape devoid of any other cities. Thanks to the Hoover Dam and the 8.5 trillion gallons of water in Lake Mead, the City has undergone crazy expansion since Warren Beatty and Harvey Keitel founded the city in the 1940’s. It is one of the thirstiest cities in the world, and has actually managed to deplete Lake Mead in recent years. There is a sense that the entire city is artificial and wildly out of place in an otherwise beautiful, rugged desert ecosystem.

I think the synthetic nature of Las Vegas is partly why the Raiders are such a good fit there. The Raiders plainly don’t care about anything except making money, and that is not dissimilar to all things Vegas. This is a team that started in Oakland, moved to Los Angeles, moved back to Oakland, and most recently came to Las Vegas this past offseason. Despite the franchise selling their soul a few different times, the Raider fans are fiercely loyal, albeit festooned in dark imagery. Even their new stadium looks fake, like a plastic salad spinner plunked down in an abandoned office park. The point is that in my lifetime, the Raiders have been sort of a caricature of an NFL franchise, complete with an owner who seems to cut his own hair, and somehow they have found the perfect home in Las Vegas.

So the Raiders come east this week to take on the red-hot Browns. Most recently the Raiders were dismantled by geriatric quarterback Tom Brady, but the week prior they somehow managed to beat the defending superbowl champion Kansas City Chiefs 40-32. Like many AFC teams, it’s hard to say if this Raider team is any good. (I believe the same is true of the Browns) Statistically, Derek Carr has been lights out with 13 touchdowns and 2 picks, but remember that he is Derek Carr, and not exactly a guy that instills fear into a defensive secondary. However, I’ve said it often that our safety and corners are paper thin, so I think Oakland will really come out throwing and try to stretch the field. Carr has been sacked 11 times in 6 games, so hopefully Myles Garrett can get him rattled and derail that offense. Oakland doesn’t run the ball exceedingly well, but today is expected typical crappy Cleveland weather (windy, rainy, cold) so perhaps the Raiders will try to get Josh Jacobs going in this game, eat some clock, and keep the Browns offense off the field.

Cleveland is obviously looking to capitalize on the good start and get to 6-2 before a bye week. Week in and week out, it has been difficult to predict what the Browns will do on offense. With no OBJ, clearly that means more targets for Landry, Higgins and our bevy of tight ends. For whatever reason, Kareen Hunt isn’t a guy that can carry the ball 25 times, so if the weather really is that bad, they are going to need more guys to run the ball and that could mean D’Ernest Johnson or Hilliard gets some reps. I wonder if today might be the kind of game to give to Andy Janovich and play some old school football where a fullback actually carries the ball. I’m starting to gain confidence in Stefanski’s ability to game plan and exploit weaknesses from opposing teams, and I like that there are a couple of gadget plays each game as well. Special teams play could also be significant today in bad weather and that’s a coin flip in terms of which team will benefit. After thinking about this game all week, listening to some podcasts, and consulting my magic 8 ball my sense is that Stefanski will outcoach Gruden in a lower scoring game than a lot of people are anticipating. I like the Browns to win this game late by a score of 27-20.


Go Browns.